Rousey vs. Correia: Final Predictions and Odds Before Start of UFC 190

Ronda Rousey takes center stage at UFC 190 Saturday night as she puts her UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship on the line against Bethe Correia. As always, the question is whether the challenger can at least force the dominant champion to break a sweat.

Other notable fights on the card include Mauricio Rua battling Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, whose twin brother, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will take on Stefan Struve, and there's also a couple final bouts from The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 4.

Let's examine the odds for all of the matches on the main card and make predictions for each. That's followed by a preview of the hyped main event.

 

Odds and Predictions for Main Card

 

Rousey vs. Correia Preview

Rousey's last two fights have lasted a combined 30 seconds, and only once in 11 bouts has she been pushed beyond the first round. Every opponent comes in with a plan they believe can end her extraordinary run of success, and she destroys it in the blink of an eye.

The question is how long overwhelming opponents with such ease will remain entertaining. She's become one of the biggest draws in the sport since arriving to UFC. Eventually, fans will probably want to see somebody give her a serious test, though.

Correia is also undefeated in her MMA career at 9-0. That includes a 3-0 mark since joining UFC, with her latest victory coming over Shayna Baszler last August.

This marks a massive increase in the level competition, however. Nobody she's faced in her career can match the power and ground game of Rousey, who's in a class by herself.

The Brazilian underdog isn't backing down from the challenge. She explained her plan of attack to Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie through an interpreter .

"I believe in myself," Correia said. "I'm going to go in there and beat her. I think I can overcome all her strong points. Her weaknesses? I'm not even worried about that. I know what I need to do in there. She doesn't trade punches. In 11 fights, she's never really shown her boxing, so I'm going to go in there and box with her."

It's clearly the right approach. Correia is at her best when she's able to stand up and fight, which has allowed her to outscore opponents with seven of her wins coming by decision. And if it moves to the ground, it's typically only a matter of time before Rousey locks in the armbar.

Of course, being able to execute a game plan like that is much easier said than done. It usually only takes Rousey a matter of seconds to take control of a fight, so expecting to keep her at bay for multiple rounds is an uphill battle to say the least.

The champion has her upcoming schedule laid out, and it certainly doesn't include a loss on Saturday night, as noted by Damon Martin of FoxSports.com.

"Here's pretty much the plan," Rousey said. "I'm going to beat up Bethe, then I'm going to take a couple of weeks to rest, and then I'm going to go beat up Miesha [Tate], and then I'm going to go to like Thailand or wherever we decide to film ("Mile 22") and prep for like a month, and then start filming for like eight to 10 weeks, and then go beat up the next chick."

Ultimately, Correia possesses the type of fighting style that could give Rousey problems—in theory. The issue, as highlighted by Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com, is that the talent gap is likely too large to overcome:

All of this equates to somewhat of an unfair fight Saturday. Really, looking back, none of Rousey's fights have looked fair, but that hasn't mattered. Her last appearance at UFC 184 in Los Angeles produced an announced gate of $2.675 million and reportedly drew the largest pay-per-view number of her career in an event she has headlined.

Correia does get to fight in front of what should be a supportive crowd in Rio de Janeiro, and the fact expectations are so low from the outside takes much of the pressure away. But it's still hard to imagine a scenario where she pulls off the shocking upset.

Expect a longer fight than the last few Rousey has won, but she should still emerge victorious inside the first round. The wait for a fight where she's pushed to the limit will continue.

 

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UFC 190: Ronda Rousey's Legacy Is That of a Show(wo)man

Ronda Rousey is among the biggest stars in MMA. Maybe the biggest star.

As a champion, though, she's beating overmatched foes in seconds and parading around the Octagon buoyed by the UFC's marketing muscle and the adulation of "Judo" Gene LeBell.

And there's a differentiation to be made there.

People have contended that Rousey is the best fighter on Earth. She isn't. She's a hyper-competitive, super-elite athlete who is fighting neophytes in a sport that is, itself, barely fumbling out of adolescence.

She is, however, one of the greatest show-persons in the sport, a star who transcends mixed martial arts and routinely finds herself starring in films, bulldogging her way into headlines at the expense of others and charming late-night talk show hosts and the crowds that follow them.

This penchant for showmanship extends to the cage as well. People are interested in watching Rousey because she's a beautiful woman capable of unleashing ferocity the likes of which isn't often seen in MMA, much less in the real world.

As she heads into another title defense at UFC 190, against Bethe Correia, a challenger who hadn't thrown a punch in her life until well after Rousey was among the most decorated American judokas in history, most believe she'll add another scalp to her collection—and do so easily. Talk has shifted, even from Rousey herself, to her legacy—what it is now and will be when people examine things down the line.

That legacy should be one founded on showmanship more than competitive greatness.

Rousey is an undeniable trailblazer, the woman who turned Dana White from a man who believed hell would freeze over before ladies entered his world to a man who routinely celebrates both her and the division she created as the best things he ever did for the UFC.

She is a wonderful martial artist, the type who devotes herself to her craft and being the best version of herself she can possibly be. That drive helps as much in making her dominant as the fact that her challengers are light-years behind her.

But what people should recall when Rousey is long gone, making movies, having children or moderating a Pokemon forum, is the fact that she was among the best shows MMA had when she did compete. From her entrance music and her game face to the inevitable slaughter that follows, few things compare to what she brings to the sport.

That isn't, however, to mistake her for being the best fighter the sport has ever seen. It shouldn't indicate that she's even the best fighter presently fighting. Greatness is relative to the competition one faces, and simply being way, way better than the opposition—which is between weak and middling—is not enough to make one the best.

There's nothing wrong with that. The danger is conflating putting on a show and providing intrigue and entertainment for fans with a legacy of greatness. Without a fight against Cris Cyborg the only proper competitive challenge out there (though if she were 135 pounds, Joanna Jedrzejczyk would warrant some attention), there'll never be any way to know if Rousey is the best talent of her generation.

So when she says she's fighting for legacy instead of money or fame at this point, that's fine. Everyone interested should be fully aware of what that legacy is, though: Rousey is the greatest show(wo)man in the sport. Everything else is just window dressing.

 

Follow Matthew on Twitter @matthewjryder.

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Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia: Keys to Victory for Each Fighter at UFC 190

Trying to find keys to victory for Bethe Correia against Ronda Rousey is like trying to find a way for me to beat Usain Bolt in a foot race. So much would have to happen to Bolt that it's barely worth even pondering.

For kicks, let's talk about what Correia has to do to pull off a miracle in her home country of Brazil in the main event of UFC 190. 

 

Correia's Keys to Victory

Be Smart with Her Strikes

Correia's striking is the best aspect of her game. She lands 55 percent of her strikes. If Rousey has a weakness, it's her striking defense. She only evades or blocks 53 percent of the strikes her opponents throw.

UFC light heavyweight champion and Fox Sports analyst Daniel Cormier obviously knows a thing or two about the sport, but it's hard not to disagree more with his keys to victory for Correia. Per Fox Sports, Cormier says: 

“She [Correia] needs to try to overwhelm Rousey with her striking and power. She needs to control the range of the fight.”

The worst thing Correia can do is attack with reckless abandon. We saw what that got Alexis Davis and Cat Zingano. Rousey used their aggression against them, and neither fighter lasted 20 seconds.

Correia has to be smart and judicious with her attack. Prolonging the fight would at least give us a chance to see if Rousey is as devastating late in a fight as she is early on.

 

Avoid the Takedown Like the Plague

Correia's takedown defense has been excellent in her career at 80 percent, but she's never faced Rousey. Avoiding the rest of the women's bantamweights' attempts at takedowns and Rousey's powerful and skillful throws are two different things.

If the fight goes to the ground, Rousey will win end it whenever she wants to put Correia out of her misery.

 

Rousey's Key to Victory

Don't Allow Emotion to Get the Best of Her

Rousey seems determined to make a statement against Correia, but she must guard against allowing this fight to get too emotional. You can watch the path both women have taken en route to Saturday's clash in the video below.

She's simply better in every way. Perhaps the only way this bout becomes competitive is if Rousey leaves herself open to take a shot she wouldn't normally take because she's trying to put on a show.

Even then, she's likely tough and resilient enough to recover, but there's no reason to put herself in harm's way. As long as she comes to the Octagon to take care of business, Correia won't make it past the two-minute mark in the first round.

 

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Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter

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Bleacher Report's UFC 190 Fight-Day Dossier

Ronda Rousey defends her title against Bethe Correia on Saturday, and Bleacher Report has had you covered wall-to-wall all week long for UFC 190. It has been another extraordinary fight week leading up to this seven-fight pay-per-view event.

With so much content it is easy to miss a story here or there, but this is your one-stop-shop to catching up before tonight's PPV.

 

Event Analysis, Opinions and Predictions

Six Reasons to Watch Rousey vs. Correia Fight Card by Dan Hiergesell

Tate vs. Rousey 3: Proof UFC Has a Women's MMA Problem by Jonathan Snowden

According to Bleacher Report research, fewer than 10 percent of all UFC fights so far in 2015 have featured women, making both women's bantamweight and the new strawweight division the least active divisions in the sport.

Who's on the Hot Seat? by Sean Smith

Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks by Brian Mazique

Preliminary Card Predictions by Riley Kontek

A Complete Guide to UFC 190 by Scott Harris

Main Card Betting Odds and Predictions by Sean Smith

UFC 190 Fact or Fiction by Chad Dundas and Jonathan Snowden

I also can’t get on board with [Neil Magny] as a top-level fighter until I see him take on someone I’ve heard of before. But that’s just business, man—it's not personal.

Main Card Staff Predictions by James MacDonald, Riley Kontek, Sean Smith, Craig Amos and Scott Harris

UFC 190 Weigh-In Live Blog by Nathan McCarter

 

Rousey vs. Correia Main Event Primer

Rousey vs. Correia: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown by Nathan McCarter

Rousey's Mom Wants Her to End Fight Fast by Nathan McCarter

Rousey's Plan: Beat Up Correia and Tate, Then Go Film a Movie by Duane Finley

While knocking out a list of lofty accomplishments of that caliber would be a career for some, just like everything else she has her hand in, Rousey makes it all seem like a foregone conclusion.

Correia Seeking 'Justice' Against Rousey by Jordy McElroy

What Cruel, Unusual Punishment Does Rousey Have Planned for Correia? by Chad Dundas

The Slow, Steady Evolution of Rousey's Striking by Steven Rondina

Rousey's 'punch and clutch' is not nearly as smooth as Fedor's, of course, but she is wisely borrowing from the Last Emperor's playbook, and it is paying dividends. This has been most obvious in the earliest stages of her recent bouts, in which she followed her game plan most strictly.

Rousey vs. Correia: Career Stats for Both Fighters by Brian Mazique

Rousey: "I'm Not a Do-Nothing B---h" by Brian Oswald

Whatever you think of Rousey and her moxie, she's never been one to pull her punches. Some may even laud Rousey for setting a good example for other women to follow. She'll certainly never be mistaken for a Stepford wife.

Correia's Mom Offers Her Own Fight Advice: Break Rousey's Jaw by Scott Harris

How Many More Fights Does Rousey Have Left? by Raphael Garcia

Kenny Florian: Correia Victory Would Be 'Biggest Upset in UFC History'by Jordy McElroy

 

Jessica Aguilar vs. Claudia Gadelha Primer

Aguilar vs. Gadelha: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown by Nathan McCarter

Aguilar vs. Gadelha Should Have Been Co-Main Event by Nathan McCarter

This could be a female-led PPV. 2015 is a year of revolution for women's athletics. The UFC could have continued that trend by showcasing these title contenders at UFC 190. Instead, they are nowhere to be seen in the UFC's promotion of the event.

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UFC 190: Start Time, Prelim Live Stream Info and Full Fight Card Predictions

There will be no shortage of star power for UFC 190 on Saturday night at HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, but there is no question the women's bantamweight clash between Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correia will have fight fans across the globe captivated.

Rousey is the undefeated UFC women's bantamweight champion and has barely been challenged during her professional career, but Correia will look to put a stop to that against her greatest rival and on home soil in front of her Brazilian fans.

Along with Rousey versus Correia, here is a full rundown of predictions for every UFC 190 bout, as well as all the information you need to enjoy the entire event.

 

Where: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

When: Saturday, Aug. 1 at 7 p.m. ET (early prelims), 8 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1 prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (main card pay-per-view)

Watch: PPV (main card) and Fox Sports 1 (prelims)

Live Stream: UFC Fight Pass

 

UFC 190 Predictions

 

Breaking Down Top Fights

Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia

Rousey's dominance is not unlike Mike Tyson's run of success early in his boxing career, and Correia is hoping she can play the role of Buster Douglas on Saturday night.

Doing so will be an extremely tall order, but the 32-year-old Brazilian has done everything in her power to throw Rowdy off her game entering the fight. That includes comments to Damon Martin of Fox Sports, suggesting that the biggest star in women's MMA is overrated:

Ronda has this characteristic of being this almighty perfect fighter, and the media's created this illusion that she's unbeatable. I don't believe she's unbeatable. I can go in there and beat her.

Even in the interview she did recently where she said she was going to use me as an example of what not to do for the other girls coming up—it's something she's trying to make herself seem so dangerous and make people fear her in a way. She's trying to create this illusion around herself, and it's making me want to go out there and do justice for everyone else.

Correia's brashness has clearly fired Rousey up, as evidenced by her intensity during the the pre-fight staredown with her opponent, as seen in this video courtesy of UFC Canada:

Rousey also claimed that despite all but one of her fights being stopped in the first round, she intends to draw this one out in order to punish Correia, relayed by TMZ:

If I beat you quickly, that's me at my nicest and most merciful. That means you get to go home unscathed with a paycheck. If I make the fight last longer, that means I don't like you and I want you to go home looking different than the way you walked in...and I don't like this chick.

Correia has talked a big game, but few expect her to come out on top. That includes Kenny Florian of UFC Tonight, who feels as though nobody is on Rousey's level:

It is difficult to argue with that notion, considering the American superstar's level of success, so the biggest question relates to how long the fight will last.

Despite Rousey's contention that she will toy with Correia, she won't do anything to risk a loss. Because of that, look for her to retain her title in vintage fashion with a first-round armbar.

 

Mauricio Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

In a rematch that has been a decade in the making, Mauricio Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will meet in what promises to be a highly competitive light heavyweight battle.

Rua defeated Nogueira 10 years ago in what many consider to be one of the greatest MMA fights of all time. Both fighters are much longer in the tooth now as Rua is 33 and Nogueira is 39, but the desire to win is still present.

For Nogueira, who has lost three of his past five fights, this meeting has been a long time coming, reported by Steven Marrocco and John Morgan of MMAjunkie:

"We were supposed to fight two years ago. But now, I have an opportunity to fight against him. So I think this fight was a war in 2005, so for me it’s a great opportunity to fight him again. I'm going to do my best to win this time."

Although both fighters are probably a bit slower and less powerful than they were in 2005, Shogun feels as though the rematch will be similar to their first meeting, per Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting:

I expect a tough fight, man. 'Minotouro' is a tough fighter, has a huge heart, so I expect another war, just like in our 2005 fight. He likes to strike and so do I, so a brawl is inevitable, right? I've been fighting for over 10 years, and so does he, so I'm sure we both will keep it standing. It's MMA, but our best weapon is our striking game.

The first edition of Rua versus Nogueira went the distance, and there is no reason to believe their rematch will be any different in that regard.

Rua enters the contest in the midst of a tough stretch, as he has dropped four of his past five fights, but thanks to the energy engendered by facing his greatest opponent in his home country, he'll scratch out a back-and-forth decision victory.

 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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