A look at those fighters looking to keep a foothold in the UFC at this Saturday's Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro.
You have to go to the fourth fight of the night to find someone with a UFC victory, which isn't a great sign for the larger significance of Saturday's UFN out of Rio. Entertainment-wise, though, it's a toss-up: we could wind up with some very mediocre performances, but might be treated to some very determined, frenetic action. Fingers crossed!
Likely Cut With a Loss
Fredy Serrano (1-0-0) - a TUF: Latin America contestant with a slight pro record who was eliminated in the tournament's opening round (albeit by the show's eventual winner).
Shayna Baszler (15-9, 0-1 UFC) - she's something of a pioneer in WMMA and she's affiliated with Rousey, all of which might give her some extra pull if Baszler hadn't looked so spent for so long. She was a non-factor on TUF, and she's 1-3 since 2012 and has already lost to four of the UFC's current bantamweights. Barring a truly inspired performance, I don't see what place there is for her in the division with another loss.
Josh Koscheck (17-9, 15-9 UFC) - he's chose to close out his contract (and ostensibly his UFC career) with a short-notice fight against an explosive brawler. A ballsy move for one of my favorite heels in MMA.
Possibly Cut With a Loss
Bentley Syler (5-0-0) - given his more extensive record, he's in a slightly better position than opponent Serrano, and it seems like the UFC would really like to pull some South American talent from outside Brazil, so maybe he'd be kept around for another undercard bout.
Christos Giagos (10-3, 0-1 UFC), Jorge Oliveira (7-1, 0-1 UFC), Cain Carrizosa (6-1, 0-1 UFC), Leonardo Mafra (11-2, 0-1 UFC) - Giagos, Carrizosa, and Mafra are in particularly tenuous spots as all three were finished their last times out. Another defeat by TKO or sub could be enough to see any of these guys released.
Likely Safe Regardless of Outcome
Alex Oliveira (10-1-1) - among those fighters making their promotional debuts, I think Oliveira's the only keeper this weekend, given his rate of success and record of finishes.
Amanda Nunes (9-4, 2-1 UFC) - Nunes is a reliable action fighter with a knack for the finish. She dropped her last to Zingano, and a loss to the faded Baszler would raise eyebrows straight off my forehead pretty much, but style and the state of the division demand that she be kept around regardless.
Drew Dober (15-6, 1-2 UFC), Tony Martin (9-2, 1-2 UFC) - both had first-round submission wins their last time out which almost certainly saved their UFC careers.
Leandro Silva (17-2-1, 1-1 UFC), Katsunori Kikuno (22-6-2, 2-1 UFC), Akbarh Arreola (23-8-1, 1-1), Andre Fili (14-2, 2-1), Godofredo Pepey (11-3, 3-3), Francisco Trinaldo (15-4, 5-3 UFC), Erick Silva (17-5, 5-4 UFC) - a win for Erick Silva this weekend will make for his first win-streak in the UFC ever; this will be his fifth shot at putting one together, and it's also arguably his best chance at one since he fought Carlo Prater in 2012 (a fight he lost by disqualification). Also worth noting is that anyone Silva's beaten has been released from the UFC within a year of their bout.
Kevin Souza (15-3, 2-0 UFC), Leonardo Santos (13-3-1, 2-0-1 UFC), Gilbert Burns (9-0, 2-0) - aside from LaFlare, the night's undefeated fighters.
Ryan LaFlare (11-0, 4-0), Demian Maia (19-6, 13-6 UFC) - in terms of relevance, this weekend is sort of make-or-break for Maia, who looked reinvigorated with his drop to welterweight. Unfortunately, following a surprisingly ineffectual showing against Jake Shields, a predictably ineffectual one against Rory Macdonald, and an uninspired decision win against a natural lightweight in Alexander Yakovlev, I think Maia is in an unenviable position of having to prove himself all over again. As for LaFlare, his UFC career seems to be proceeding at a near-perfect pace. He has the longest active UFC win-streak of the night.
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