David Castillo breaks down the three things you need to know for a lightweight battle that needs to happen on the ground in order to be entertaining between Leonardo Santos and Tony Martin.
Before Demian Maia and Ryan LaFlare take center stage, two grappling loving lightweights look to hopefully avoid an amateur kickboxing bout in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil at the Ginasio do Maracanazinho on March 21, 2015.
The Match Up
Lightweight Leonardo Santos 13-3-1 vs. Tony Martin 9-2
The Odds
Lightweight Leonardo Santos +100 vs. Tony Martin -120
3 Things You Should Know
1. At 35 years of age, Santos will provide what you can expect out of aging but brilliant grappler.
Santos has yet to lose in the octagon, which speaks more to his strength of opposition than his actual talent. While his resume in the UFC is actually fairly good (Macario is one fight away from a pink slip, but still underrated in my book), his performances have been less so. After winning Season 2 of TUF:Brazil, there might be some who feel like he's a fighter that can be highlighted on the main card, but this is anything but the case.
To some Santos hasn't shown enough in the cage to prove his longevity, but to his credit, he's accomplished step one in doing just that; beating everyone they throw in front of him.
2. It's a little strange for Tony Martin to be the favorite. Perhaps said reasons have little to do with Martin himself, but if not, they should. It's hard to underestimate youth.
Martin is 1-2 in the UFC, but his two losses have come against quality opposition in Rashid Magomedov and Beneil Dariush. Martin didn't turn pro until 2012, but he's since done well for himself, and is getting quality time at American Top Team where trainers and coaches will look to coax the most out of his heavy frame.
3. Very little about this fight makes sense except as a manifestation of Joe Silva more carefully nominating certain bouts as the proverbial "bathroom break" fights.
This could very well end up looking like Shogun vs. Machida 1, making all of us writers and fans looking stupid for not giving these guys a chance, but on paper, this bodes little in the way of high octane action.
Santos hasn't done much to improve his striking except as a matter of utilitarian need. He activates a decent jab, and lobs a shrieking right hand when committed, but for the most part all of his flaws read like a Royce Gracie profile; Santos isn't athletic, can't wrestle effectively, and can't strike against the division's elite.
However, he's a little like Jake Shields in that his technique is sneaky good. He doesn't get blown out despite his handicap defensively, and generally knows when to time his offense. If the fight becomes entertaining, it will be because Martin pushed Santos into making it hectic. Martin has a real blue collar method to his madness, switching between lateral an horizontal offense as he sees fit. I kind of like Martin for this reason; he's a capable wrestler, and should be able to keep it on the feet, where he'll have modest advantages that should score him a deliberate, if plodding split decision.
Prediction
Tony Martin by Split Decision.
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