Check out who the Bloody Elbow staff is picking to win every fight on Saturday night's UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare event in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
The Bloody Elbow staff has submitted its predictions for Saturday's UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare card in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It's a near-unanimous vote for Erick Silva to defeat Josh Koscheck in the co-main event, but it's a little more divided for the main event between Demian Maia and Ryan LaFlare. There are a couple of unanimous choices on the main card, although that didn't really help us in last week's UFC 185.
For those who missed out, UFC middleweight Josh Samman has not only joined the BE team as a writer but he is also contributing his predictions. He went a solid 8-4 and was the only person to predict Joanna Jedrzejczyk to beat Carla Esparza.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected on Friday. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons.
Demian Maia vs. Ryan LaFlare
Mookie Alexander: This feels like a fight LaFlare should win if not solely because Maia is going to be 38 this year and he is liable to become a real shell of his former self at any given moment. LaFlare is a physically imposing fighter with a strong top game and excellent transitions on the ground. His striking isn't really that powerful but it's very effective. I think he's shown a great use of mixing up his striking with his takedown game that Maia could be severely worn down over the course of a five-round fight. If Maia wins this fight it's by catching LaFlare in a bad spot early, because Maia has otherwise not submitted anyone outside of round 1 since Jason MacDonald back in 2008. I can see paths to victory for Maia but they have to be taken as quickly as possible, or else LaFlare's athleticism, cardio, and size advantage will take over and he'll get a comfortable decision. Ryan LaFlare by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: These gatekeeper type fights always make me happy. This is a tough one to call, largely due to the time off from both men and trying to gauge how that will impact them. I suspect it will take a greater toll on the 37 year old battle weary Maia. I am not yet fully convinced LaFlare has as high an upside as some, but I do see him being "in the mix". And sadly, I don't think Maia is there anymore. Ryan LaFlare by decision
Zane Simon: This is definitely a fight, in the nature of narratives, that Ryan LaFlare should win. He's at the stage in his career, where he should be a fully developed fighter in his prime. And given his relative athleticism and combination of wrestling, grappling, and striking skills, a very good fighter in his prime. Maybe not a title contender, but top 10-ish material. Demian Maia has been there, done that. He's been a top tier MW/WW for the better part of the past half-decade. Lately, he's been looking less and less dominant and this really feels like the fight where he falls off that top 10 spot. LaFlare isn't likely to get submitted or held down for 3 rounds, and I don't think Maia has the conditioning anymore to win for 15 minutes. Ryan LaFlare by decision.
Staff picking Maia: Tim, Josh, Karim
Staff picking LaFlare: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Zane
Mookie Alexander: Seems straightforward. Erick Silva loses this fight only if he succumbs to Koscheck's power double repeatedly or is knocked out with Josh's big right hand, which has knocked zero people out since Matt Hughes' ghost in 2011. Because it's Erick Silva, this kinda can actually happen and if it does, he's got to go down as one of the biggest disappointments in UFC history. But logic here says Erick has his way with Josh inside of 3 minutes. Erick Silva by submission, round 1.
Zane Simon: I really don't see how Koscheck can win this. It's only been against the worst counter-wrestlers that Koscheck has been a really effective top control grinder in his career. And it's not a trick he's been able to pull out for a long long time. Usually he hits a big takedown and then lands big shots as his opponent tries to get back up, rinse and repeat. He started strong against Ellenberger, but the moment he got hit hard, he became super predictable. Silva doesn't always fight smart, but he can definitely hit hard, hard enough to throw Koscheck off his game and into desperation mode. From there, Silva's reactive wrestling and grappling will probably do the rest of the job. Erick Silva by submission, Round 1.
Staff picking Koscheck: Roy
Staff picking Silva: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Leonardo Santos vs. Tony Martin
Mookie Alexander: I will not be goaded into picking the TUF guy. That almost always backfires. Tony Martin by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Tony Martin's UFC career has struggled for two reasons thus far: firstly, being put up against guys who didn't have a lot of fanfare but have quietly proven themselves to be really really good in Rashid Magomedov and Beneil Dariush. Secondly, gassing out badly. He says he's fixed the second issue, but he's going to have to prove it to me. Leo Santos is large and a skilled grappler with a predisposition for the Nova Uniao arm triangle but he's old, not a great athlete, and Martin basically dealt with a much better version of him in Dariush before gassing out. Santos is tough and I'm not sure if Martin can finish him early, so I'm going to gamble on an improved gas tank and Tony Martin by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: I would love to Pick Martin here. I think he's a great rising talent with a strong future in the division. But, he's only a passable striker, and while he's a physical beast in the clinch, that's only gotten him through the first round thus far in his career. I don't think he'll finish Santos inside a round (after all Santos is a great grappler). And after that, I think Santos is the more consistent (if still ugly) fighter. Essentially, even if both men gas, I think Martin gasses harder. Leo Santos by decision.
Staff picking Santos: Zane
Staff picking Martin: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Roy, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser
Amanda Nunes vs. Shayna Baszler
Mookie Alexander: Baszler is just about done and Nunes is a mauler. Not competitive. Amanda Nunes by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Baszler is clearly on a decline, and has been dropping stoppage losses to fighters who aren't particularly potent. Nunes follows something of a theme for the main card by being short on cardio but astonishingly violent. This could be grisly. Amanda Nunes by TKO, round 1.
Josh Samman: Amanda and I used to train at the same gym in Miami. She is a beast, and Baszler is shot out in my opinion. Should be a good showcase to get Nunes back on track. Amanda Nunes by early TKO.
Fraser Coffeen: Baszler is awesome and one of the OGs of Women's MMA, so just out of respect I hate picking against her. But her generation of fighters is, for the most part, cashed. And she's a prime example of that. Much like against Correia, I just don't see Baszler having the strength to deal with Nunes's power and aggression. Sorry Queen of Spades. Amanda Nunes by KO, round 1
Zane Simon: Even if Nunes hits the wall early, Baszler isn't exactly known for her cardio or late wins. Amanda Nunes by terrible destruction, Round 1.
Staff picking Nunes: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Baszler:
Gilbert Burns vs. Alex Oliveira
Mookie Alexander: Durinho smash. Gilbert Burns by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Burns is dropping into something of the Bektic role in taking on relatively unknown but good fighters and making them look bad. Alex Cowboy is a solid, aggressive Muay Thai striker, but Burns is perhaps the best athlete and most natural fit for MMA to cross over from sport BJJ since Jacare. Unless he's hiding some kind of huge durability or overconfidence issues Durinho should be able to mop up on Oliveira everywhere. Gilbert Burns by submission, round 1.
Zane Simon: I like Oliveira a lot. I think he can be a great action fighter for the UFC in the future. I doubt strongly he wins this fight. Even if Durinho is outgunned on the feet (and I'm not sure about that). His solid wrestling and amazing BJJ should see him through for a submission win over Oliveira. Gilbert Burns by Submission, Round 2.
Staff picking Burns: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Roy, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Oliveira:
Godofredo Pepey vs. Andre Fili
Mookie Alexander: Andre Fili is a good prospect and Pepey isn't really that good. I just want to see if Pepey can get KO'd from guard for the 3rd time. Andre "Horrible Nickname" Fili by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Fili is the better athlete from the better camp. He's still a little wild, and he has yet to really coalesce his game, but he's got a clean double leg, decent range striking, a good clinch and most importantly keeps an excellent pace. However, he's going to have to start showing what his finishing weapons really are. He can probably stop Pepey just by outworking him, though. Andre Fili by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: There's a chance Fili loses this fight. He has a bad habit of wrestling and grappling when he really doesn't need to and even losing those exchanges. His desire to be well rounded and prove himself everywhere can work against him. Still, I don't think Pepey is that much of an opportunist. He's more of a crazy, throw everything against the wall and see what sticks, kind of fighter. It's up to Fili to screw this up badly enough to lose, and I don't think he will. Andre Fili by TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Pepey: Tim, Karim
Staff picking Fili: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Roy, Josh, Fraser, Zane
Francisco Trinaldo vs. Akbarh Arreola
Phil Mackenzie: I am less sure of this than almost everyone else seems to be. Trinaldo The Tertiary Tibau basically has the problems of Tibau Prime, but to a much, much greater extent. Worse gas tank, less technical polish. It was almost certainly aided by Yves Edwards's decline, but I thought Arreola looked surprisingly good last time out (particularly for a 13-year vet of the game) and didn't get blown out of the water by Tibau Two: Trator. I have to pick Trinaldo, but really don't be surprised if (sing it with me, everyone) "the more physically overwhelming fighter gasses out and falls off horribly." Francisco Trinaldo by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Arreola was lucky to get a severely faded Yves Edwards in his last fight, which made him look like a real potential talent. I'm still not sold at all, as he was pretty easily manhandled in his bout against Tiago Trator and has generally lost throughout his career to even borderline UFC quality fighters. Considering his biggest problem seems to be a lack of power and athleticism, it's hard to see him getting by a behemoth like Trinaldo. Francisco Trinaldo by decision.
Staff picking Trinaldo: Phil, Stephie, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Arreola:
Kevin Souza vs. Katsunori Kikuno
Phil Mackenzie: One of Kikuno's problems is that the lightweight and featherweight divisions have both gotten a lot bigger around him as he's come over from DEEP and gotten older, and his style (all the way in and clinch / all the way out and kick) really suffers badly without reach parity. Anyhoo, he was able to beat Sicilia who is short and bad at range fighting, but Souza is an enormously tall featherweight with a long, hard right hand that it's hard to not see landing through Kikuno's porous defense. Seems pretty cut and dried to me. Kevin Souza by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: This is a real litmus test for both men. Kikuno is the biggest name fight of Souza's career. A fighter with the power and the skill to put him away with one shot. A dangerous fighter. But it's also a pretty great matchup for Souza's range boxing game, as Kikuno is defensively wide open and very susceptible to getting pot-shotted with long range, straight punches. That's the kind of offense Souza has in spades. Of course, for Kikuno, this is another test, to see if he can adapt to a less technical boxer than Tony Ferguson who's going to try and exploit him in just the same way. I think it's a lot more likely that Kikuno fails that test than it is that Souza gets caught. Kevin Souza by TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Souza: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Roy, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Kikuno: Tim, Josh
Phil Mackenzie: For some reason I can't envision this fight at all. Dober is pretty decent everywhere, has some solid leg kicks, but has very little inclination to dictate where the fight goes. Buscape is big and aggressive, and being aggressive historically gets to Dober. Leandro Silva by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Drew Dober is the kind of fighter I want to be better than he is. He has a great chin, a high output striking style and decent technique. But, he doesn't have any power, wrestling, or grappling. At least not that he's shown to date. Fighters can generally eat his shots, walk him down, and take him to the mat. Silva is huge and a really decent wrestler grappler when he gets his offense going. Seems like a very bad matchup for Dober. Leandro Silva by decision.
Staff picking Silva: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Dober:
Leonardo Mafra vs. Cain Carrizosa
Mookie Alexander: Whoa. Cain really committed to a weight-loss program. Wait this isn't Velasquez? Leonardo Mafra by TKO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Unless we see a really bad weight cut from Mafra, I expect some old school Chute Boxe violence from the younger, bigger, more offensively dangerous fighter. Leonardo Mafra by TKO, round 1
Zane Simon: I expected more from Carrizosa than what I saw in his debut, and I'm still not sure just what I'll see from him here. He's an aggressive striker-grappler with no wrestling and a willingness to pull guard. But, he chains submissions well, and isn't terrible standing up. Mafra, on the other hand, is really not good on the ground at all but is a stone cold killer standing. Since Carrizosa's takedown ability is really unproven, I'm taking Mafra here, but if Carrizosa can get him down (or last deep into round 2), Mafra's probably done. Leonardo Mafra, by KO round 1.
Staff picking Mafra: Phil, Mookie, Stephie, Tim, Josh, Karim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Carrizosa:
Jorge de Oliveira vs. Christos Giagos
Phil Mackenzie: Speaking of decent fighters which Gilbert Burns made look bad, we have RFA champ Christos Giagos. An aggressive phase-shifter, he's still wild... but I suspect that de Oliveira will not be able to capitalize. His level of competition is a bit suspect (despite knocking out the terrifying-sounding Nelson Velasquez) and I think Blade is too used to being allowed to attack from range, utilizing his metaphorical guns and metal boomerang things when he should be working on using the katana and the suplex. This fight could be sneaky awesome, it could be Giagos getting pasted, but I think the most likely outcome is just Giagos punching into takedowns and roughing Blade up for three rounds. Christos Giagos by unanimous decision
Zane Simon: I feel a little bad for Jorge Blade, as he could be sort of a B/C grade Manhoef for the UFC. The kind of fun action kickboxer that can be a tough out for other action kickboxers. But the rest of his game, as Dhiego Lima showed, is really lagging behind. As long as Giagos doesn't just stand in front of Blade and try and test his striking, he should win. Christos Giagos by decision.
Staff picking Oliveira: Mookie, Roy, Josh, Karim
Staff picking Giagos: Phil, Stephie, Tim, Fraser, Zane
Bentley Syler vs. Fredy Serrano
Mookie Alexander: Seriously? There's a dude named Bentley Syler in the UFC? Parents are naming their kids Bentley? Well I guess I'll let that decide the winner. Bentley Syler by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: It's everyone's favourite time... the TUF LATAM coinflip! Fighters who went out in the first round of the show, no less! We all know the deal. These guys will fight each other and we won't know who to pick, and then they'll get winnowed down, and then the survivors will fight other UFC fighters, and we'll all pick against the TUF guys, and one or two of them might surprise us and hang around. Serrano is old, 1-0 but has a legit athletic pedigree. Bentley "El Doctor Bolivia" Syler should, as Mookie mentioned, win on his name alone. He's way more experienced (at a stonking 5-0), slightly less old, and is training out of ATT. Fredy lost to the eventual winner by very close and boring decision, Bentley got stopped by the finalist in one round. I'm going to predict some lay and pray, and Fredy Serrano by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: One of these guys has wrestled well at the international level, the other is 5-0 against cans. Syler really doesn't look like he has the physical tools to compete in the UFC, or the skills to make that less of a problem. Serrano is super super raw, but he wrestles well, actually throws straight punches, and looks every bit like a UFC caliber athlete. As long as he keeps training he should keep improving. Fredy Serrano by decision.
Staff picking Syler: Mookie, Roy, Josh, Fraser
Staff picking Serrano: Stephie, Tim, Phil, Karim, Zane
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