Kyoji Horiguchi has a big task ahead of him when he faces Demetrious Johnson at UFC 186.
The 24-year-old has shown some promise since making his UFC debut in 2013. His 4-0 record in the Octagon and 15-1 record overall are why he has this opportunity in the first place. But when Horiguchi is looking across the cage at Johnson, he'll be seeing an entirely new level of competition.
The four opponents that Horiguchi has beaten in the UFC have combined for a total of two wins in the UFC. Johnson had two wins last year.
The odds reflect this experience disparity, of course. The latest numbers from Odds Shark have Mighty Mouse as a 8-1 favorite to retain his belt against his Japanese challenger. Here's a look at the tale of the tape heading into the matchup, as well some predictions for how the fight will shake out.
Horiguchi Will Look to Gauge Distance Early
Horiguchi is known for his knockout power, but that doesn't mean he's going to come out guns a-blazing and looking to knock out Johnson. His karate style calls for him to sit back in his stance and wait for the right opportunities to blitz his opponent.
This tendency for early tentativeness showed in his bout against Louis Gaudinot. Facing the aggressive Gaudinot, he only threw 27 significant strikes in the first round, per FightMetric. He would then go on to increase his workload in each of the next two rounds.
Unfortunately for Horiguchi, Johnson isn't Gaudinot. Few in MMA can rival Mighty Mouse's quickness and footwork. If Horiguchi is waiting on the champion to make a mistake early, it's not going to happen.
Johnson Will Score Multiple Takedowns
Even if Horiguchi starts off tentatively, he's made it clear he's looking for a knockout. "This is my time and I'm ready. [Johnson] is a very good fighter, but I have a lot of weapons as well," Horiguchi told Duane Finley of Bleacher Report. "I'm going to use my karate base to control the fight and take advantage in the stand-up game. I will be looking for the knockout at all times."
That makes for great pre-fight talk, but it's indicative of a fighter who might not have the patience to outpoint a fighter on the feet. With Johnson's elusiveness frustrating Horiguchi, the challenger could ditch his usually patient game plan early on for a more aggressive approach.
When that happens, it'll be the beginning of the end for the challenger.
Johnson is a great champion because of how well-rounded his game is. He can wrestle the best strikers in his division and outstrike the best grapplers. In this case, he can look to take his challenger to the mat as much as possible.
Johnson Will Finish the Fight
Once this fight heads to the ground, the advantage for Johnson swings from noticeable to gigantic. His fluidity in transitions is unrivaled.
When making his pick, Bloody Elbow's Zane Simon broke down how Horiguchi's weakness plays right into Johnson's strength:
Horiguchi does a great job keeping and controlling range. His broken rhythm style takes time to track down, and like Johnson and Dodson, he's great at moving in and out of the pocket behind strikes. In the early rounds I expect Johnson to have some trouble finding his timing and tracking Horiguchi down. Once he does, however, Horiguchi is very prone to giving up his back in scrambles and I think that'll really cost him. Demetrious Johnson by Submission, Round 3.
A submission-victory prediction is a perfectly logical one. After all, Johnson has earned two of his last three stoppages by way of submission. However, he might not even need to bring those skills out of the bag in this case.
He's so good at putting himself in advantageous positions and landing ground-and-pound that it's easy to envision him bringing the fight to a halt via strikes.
Prediction: Johnson via second-round TKO.
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