Prepare yourself for a bold prediction and an alternative DraftKings lineup. There's some traditional picks in this five-fighter list, but the boldness begins with the selection of Fabricio Werdum over Cain Velasquez in the main event.
Velasquez is the reigning UFC heavyweight champion and has been since December 2012 when he avenged his loss to Junior dos Santos via unanimous decision. It may sound as if Velasquez has had a long reign as champion, but at closer examination the 30-month run has only included two title defenses.
Velasquez brutalized Antonio Silva and then Dos Santos in a third meeting in 2013, but knee injuries forced him to miss all of 2014. In the meantime, due to his inactivity, the UFC had Werdum take on Mark Hunt for the interim title. Werdum beat Hunt with a spectacular flying knee that led to a TKO of the rugged Samoan.
It has all led up to Velasquez's return to the Octagon and a meeting with Werdum on Saturday in Mexico. From the looks of the DK salaries (Velasquez $11,900 and Werdum $7,500) it's clear to see which fighter is the guy most expect to win.
Here's why I'm drafting Werdum:
Werdum not only has a legit chance to win, but I'm predicting he prevails via submission. Velasquez is known for his cardio and ground-and-pound. However, he's never faced, or likely even had the opportunity to train with, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner on Werdum's level. The 37-year-old Brazilian has submitted the great Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his career.
Those are not small accomplishments in the world of grappling. Velasquez can bang for sure, but at some point Werdum is going to force this fight to the ground, and Velasquez's work rate could ultimately be a negative. Werdum is great at using his opponent's aggressiveness against them. Velasquez may put himself in a position that leads to a choke and a submission loss to the crafty Brazilian.
Even if Velasquez wins, Werdum's striking has improved to a point where he won't generate a zero for you in the fantasy points department. In his last seven rounds—which spans two fights—Werdum is averaging 3.78 significant strikes per minute, per FightMetric.
That accuracy should make him a productive loser if the main prediction doesn't come true. Here's a look at my full lineup of fighters for the UFC 188 card.
Tecia Torres ($11,400) vs. Angela Hill
Experience and physical strength is everything in this matchup. Tecia Torres has had five pro fights and her opponent Angela Hill has had just two. In a weight class as young as the women's strawweight division, three pro fights are like dog years.
Because both Torres and Hill were a part of the Ultimate Fighter Season 20 cast, they are familiar with each other. Torres has gained the reputation as a striker, and she knows Hill has some of the same skills. However, Torres doesn't seem too worried.
She told MMA Junkie's Brent Brookhouse: "I know she’s going to come with her muay thai skills, but I feel that I have the better overall experience and I’m just going to be better in every aspect of the fight."
I believe her and am willing to invest $11,400 of DK salary to prove it.
Eddie Alvarez ($9,100) vs. Gilbert Melendez ($10,300)
On every DK UFC contest, you're going to have to select a fighter who will probably lose. There's just not enough salary to go around to take five favorites in most cases. On this card, the guy I've tabbed is former Bellator standout Eddie Alvarez.
He takes on Gilbert Melendez in what could be the Fight of the Night.
First and foremost, Alvarez is the pick here because his salary is affordable and helps to facilitate the drafting of other fighters who have a great chance of scoring big. Secondly, if Alvarez loses, it'll likely be by decision.
Melendez has never stopped an opponent in the UFC and hasn't scored a victory by TKO or submission since 2011. Alvarez probably isn't the guy set to be Melendez's first stoppage victim in the promotion. The former hasn't been stopped since 2011.
Lastly, Alvarez just might win this fight. This will be his second bout in the UFC, and the pressure is on him to produce with the biggest promotion in the sport. While Melendez is skilled and tough, his lack of elite knockout power could allow Alvarez the freedom to wing a few more shots and score an unexpected victory.
At worst, Alvarez should be one of the event's most productive losers in a five-round fight that sees both men have their moments.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com
No comments:
Post a Comment