Lost in all the buzz surrounding UFC 189's main event between Conor McGregor and Chad Mendes is an epic co-main event between Rory MacDonald and Robbie Lawler.
Usually the term co-main event is a bit of a misnomer. It's more like the appetizer to a greater event. That simply isn't the case with this one. Not only is there an undisputed championship on the line as opposed to an interim one, but it's a matchup with some history.
Lawler and MacDonald locked horns back in UFC 167. Heading into the bout, MacDonald was on a five-fight win streak and appeared ready to make the leap to champion sooner rather than later. Conversely, Lawler was just two fights removed from a 1-3 run in Strikeforce.
What was supposed to be an easy win for MacDonald turned into a huge career boost for Lawler. He stunned the Canadian up-and-comer with a game plan that neutralized his opponent's jab and earned him the nod in a split decision.
Ruthless went on to get a title shot against Johny Hendricks that he lost. Ultimately, it paved the way for a rematch that saw him become a UFC champion.
Now the two will meet again with the stakes raised. Here's a look at how the two stack up along with the latest odds from Odds Shark.
What They're Saying
Despite his championship status, Lawler actually comes in as the slight underdog according to the odds. That probably stems from a sense that MacDonald has improved since their first meeting. He has reeled off wins over Demian Maia, Tyron Woodley and Tarec Saffiedine since losing to Lawler.
Regardless of the logic, one man who isn't interested is Lawler himself. The champion has played the underdog role before and will be playing it again Saturday night.
"That's just the way it is. Maybe they're seeing something that I'm not seeing. Everyone's got an opinion and not all of them are good ones," Lawler said in regards to being the underdog, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. "I'm excited to showcase that I'm the better man. Plain and simple."
A fair assumption could be made about the first fight that MacDonald didn't take Lawler as serious as he should have the first time around. He came into the bout as the heir apparent to the welterweight crown held by Georges St-Pierre. Lawyer was considered a journeyman. It isn't out of the realm of possibility a 23-year-old put the cart before the horse.
That's not going to happen again. The Tristar gym product has made it clear he's learned from the fight and knows he has his work cut out for him.
"I'm happy that I got to go through that," MacDonald said, according to Martin. "I lacked the experience in other martial arts. I needed a longer road than some because I lacked the experience at a higher level of competition. I'm grateful for it. I think it's all come together perfectly."
MacDonald went on to praise the improvements that Lawler has made to his game even since their first fight. Whether MacDonald's respect for his opponent had anything to do with the first result or not, it doesn't appear that it will have an effect on this fight either way.
Prediction
Speaking of the fight going either way, making predictions on this fight is not the easiest thing in the world. There's a reason the line is relatively close even if MacDonald is a slight favorite.
Both fighters are willing to play each other's game. MacDonald loves to engage in technical kickboxing bouts and control where the fight takes place. Lawler is willing to participate in a kickboxing match as long as it means he gets to throw a few bombs here and there.
As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics highlights, MacDonald looks to control fights, whereas Lawler is a little more comfortable allowing his opponents to dictate where the fight takes place:
He's looking to knock his opponent out either way. Oversimplifying the fight, MacDonald is a true tactician while Lawler is a classic brawler, looking to do his best impression of Rock 'Em Sock 'Em robots whenever possible.
In a rematch, traditional thinking would say that MacDonald holds the advantage. He's more likely to make the necessary adjustments to change the result in a second fight. However, as Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie notes, Lawler is actually a perfect 3-0 in his rematches:
MacDonald has never had a rematch, though. Lawler picked up the win against Hendricks in the biggest rematch of his career, but it wasn't like it was an emphatic win. He picked up a very close split decision.
The champion has been walking a dangerous line lately. According to FightMetric, he's been taken down multiple times in each of his bouts since his win over MacDonald. In that span, he's won two decisions and earned a third-round knockout victory.
That penchant for letting opponents dictate the fight is going to catch up to him eventually. With MacDonald now a little older and wiser, Saturday night is as good a time as any.
Prediction: MacDonald to win via unanimous decision.
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