"The Notorious" Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he's a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he's going to lose to Chad "Money" Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor's 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He's only had to stop five takedown attempts in his UFC career, and none of those have been attempted by a wrestler on par with Mendes.
Originally, McGregor was supposed to be facing UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, but the latter had to bow out because of a rib injury. Mendes stepped up to take his place and fight McGregor for an interim title.
Some might be pointing to Mendes' short camp as a reason to pick McGregor. Instead, McGregor will be burned by facing an entirely different style of fighter than the one he'd prepared to face for weeks. Aldo is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, but he prefers to do his damage on the feet.
That style more plays into McGregor's hands as he is a tall and powerful striker who has hurt every 145-pound fighter he's laid a glove on. Mendes has big-time punching power, but he's also the best wrestler in the weight class. He has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rate. That's pretty high considering the caliber of fighters Mendes has faced in the UFC.
McGregor won't be able to keep Mendes from taking him down. Once Money gets him down, he'll pound him out en route to a TKO victory and a huge return on investment for DraftKings players who select him for $9,600.
Here's a look at my entire lineup for UFC 189:
Thomas Almeida ($11,200) vs. Brad Pickett
I've said this for the last six months: The next major superstar in the UFC is Thomas Almeida. His striking is already on another level, and it simply gets better each time you watch him. Almeida is averaging 100.3 fantasy points per bout in the UFC. McGregor is the only fighter on the card with a higher average.
The undefeated 23-year-old is going to mow down the over-the-hill and undersized Brad Pickett on Saturday.
If this fight gets out of the first round, it'll be a miracle.
Almeida is faster, 13 years younger and a better technical striker than Pickett. Almeida is also a big 135-pounder who will likely look like a giant in the Octagon next to Pickett on fight night. While his price tag is high, Almeida will be worth every virtual penny.
Damon Martin of UFC.com agrees. He writes:
Pickett will certainly stand in the pocket and exchange with anybody and Almeida is probably no different, but the Brazilian is much more technical and dangerous on his feet. Almeida could become a title contender one day, so his performance should be something special and this might be a passing of the torch as Pickett anoints the Brazilian prospect as the next big thing at 135 pounds after their fight is finished at UFC 189.
Tim Means ($8,900) vs. Matt Brown
The best budget pick on the card is Tim "Dirty Bird" Means at $8,900. He's facing the seemingly ineradicable Matt Brown, but this one is going to be interesting. Means has been on a tear as of late, but it's true, none of those wins have come over fighters of Brown's caliber.
However, if you've watched Means in these bouts, you'll see the quality of his performances supersede the level of competition. He's been busy and effective with his striking. He's averaged 110 significant strike attempts per fight in his last four bouts, and he's landed 199 of them.
In his career, he's defended 65 percent of the strikes thrown at him. Brown can be wild and out of control at times. This can be a major issue against a more technical and cerebral opponent.
Means is the more technically sound fighter, and I think he sets up a late submission win over Brown with counter striking through the first two rounds.
Gunnar Nelson ($9,200) vs. Brandon Thatch
This bout is an excellent clash between contrasting styles. Gunnar Nelson gets the edge because Brandon Thatch was unimpressive with his takedown defense and poise on the ground against Benson Henderson in his last fight.
Facing an elite grappler like Nelson, those deficiencies will be exploited. Nelson's sneaky striking will help to set up the takedown, and he'll ultimately outwork Thatch on the ground and earn the submission victory.
Cody Garbrandt (11,000) vs. Henry Briones
If you had to rank the fighters most likely to get knocked out in the first round on Saturday, Henry Briones would have to be close to the top of the list.
Not only is Garbrandt an explosive and ferocious young striker, Briones' defense looked suspect in his UFC debut. He absorbed 5.2 strikes per minute and only stopped 52 percent of the strikes thrown against him.
When facing a fighter like Garbrandt, that type of defense will get Briones folded up like a lawn chair. Garbrandt is worth the 11K of DK salary.
All stats per FightMetric.com unless otherwise stated.
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