The odds are extremely tight for the UFC 189 main event Saturday. Per Odds Shark, Conor McGregor is the slight favorite to take down Jose Aldo's replacement, Chad Mendes. McGregor's odds are set at 19-20, and Mendes is just behind him at 87-100. Aldo was forced to back out of the much-anticipated battle with McGregor because of a rib injury.
Stylistically, Mendes presents a much different challenge for McGregor than Aldo. While Mendes does have explosive power, he's also a world-class wrestler. That skill set could be the undoing of McGregor. The Irishman is purely a stand-up fighter who has yet to prove he's capable of being effective on the ground.
Thus far, McGregor's takedown defense percentage has been impregnable. Per FightMetric, he's stopped 100 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. To put that number in the proper perspective, McGregor's opponents have only attempted five takedowns against him in the UFC. He's yet to face a truly elite wrestler. That'll change on Saturday night when he locks horns with Mendes.
In his UFC career, Mendes has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rating. That's pretty high considering the world-class competition he has faced in the UFC. This is clearly the key to the fight. With a decided height (5'9") and reach advantage (74"), McGregor figures to dominate the stand-up exchanges if he can keep Mendes (5'6", 66") at a distance.
If Mendes can get on the inside, the game will change.
Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com gave Mendes a good chance to win based on his power and wrestling prowess but believes the short camp and McGregor's pressure will deliver the victory for the Irishman. Okamoto wrote:
I think Mendes will earn multiple takedowns in the opening frame and if he doesn't knock McGregor out (which I do think is possible), he'll at least get out to an early lead on the scorecards. But as the fight progresses, McGregor's pressure coupled with that extremely short fight camp will start to take its toll on Mendes. And once that happens, McGregor has the tools to take full advantage.
It's easy to see how Mendes could get out to a fast start with his wrestling. If this happens, he won't allow McGregor to escape his predicament. We never know how a natural predator will respond when he's wounded. If McGregor is put on his back and hurt, Mendes will finish the job.
Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report also believes there's a solid chance Mendes does some damage to McGregor but doesn't see him breaking the Notorious' winning streak. Ballentine said:
Unlike many flashy prospects before him, McGregor's game isn't just predicated on pure power or speed. He's displayed a fight IQ that is as high as any young fighter. His ability to adjust to opponents and lure them into his type of fight has been apparent in his run with the UFC.
We may see him in more danger than he's ever been in, but it's hard to pick against his supreme confidence and style to make UFC 189 his official announcement to the MMA world as a bona fide star.
No one seems to want to pull the trigger on a Mendes upset prediction. Allow me to be the guy who calls it. Mendes' physical strength, wrestling prowess, athleticism and will are the biggest factors in this matchup. McGregor has done an excellent job of self-promoting, and he is a legit talent.
However, this is a bad matchup for him. McGregor's takedown defense isn't as good as it appears, and Mendes will expose that. Was the fight camp short? Yes, it was, but in today's UFC, where cancellations are commonplace, top contenders stay ready to step in and take advantage of opportunities.
As you can see from the video interview below from the UFC, Mendes has one of the best training groups in the sport. He'll be prepared.
Mendes is a long-suffering contender who has only lost to Aldo in his career. The gap between him and every other featherweight in the world—besides maybe Frankie Edgar—is huge. Mendes will not only defeat McGregor; he'll get it done in the first round via TKO.
Remember where you heard it.
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