Knockout wins are great for UFC DraftKings contests. Saturday's UFC Fight Night Japan features a main event with two bruising heavyweights, which usually all but guarantees a stoppage win for someone.
"The Warmaster" Josh Barnett ($10,800) takes on "Big Country" Roy Nelson in a battle between heavyweight veterans in need of a victory. Travis Browne viciously knocked out Barnett in the latter's last fight back in December 2013.
Nelson has lost his last two fights, and neither of them have been close. In March, Alistair Overeem picked apart Nelson for three rounds in a lopsided unanimous-decision loss. Before that, Mark Hunt knocked him out in September 2014.
Against Barnett, he'll be at a height and length disadvantage. Barnett stands 6'3" with a 79" reach compared to 6'0" and a 72" reach for Nelson. Conditioning is routinely an issue for Nelson in his fights. Despite a mature Brazilian jiu-jitsu game, he's usually restricted to winning fights with a big right hand because he doesn't have the stamina to outwork an opponent on the ground.
Even if he did have the wind, Barnett might be the only heavyweight in the UFC Nelson can't out-grapple. Barnett's wrestling and submission skills are elite. When you group that skill set with his superior reach against a less-than-mobile Nelson, it's hard to imagine Barnett losing this fight.
In his career, 28 of Barnett's 33 wins have come by submission or KO. The Warmaster is the smart play in the main event. Here's a look at all of the best DK picks for the card:
Kyoji Horiguchi ($11,000)
Kyoji Horiguchi has the home-field advantage on Saturday night, as the 24-year-old Japanese star gets set to entertain his countrymen.
It wouldn't be totally crazy to think that Horiguchi has a good chance to beat any flyweight not named Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson. In Horiguchi's last fight, Johnson outclassed him en route to a last-second submission defeat at the hands of the pound-for-pound king.
On Saturday, Horiguchi will be taking on a tough but physically overmatched Chico Camus.
What Camus lacks in pure athleticism he's usually able to compensate for with heart and relentlessness. That won't be the case against Horiguchi.
When it comes to speed and explosiveness, Horiguchi is second only to John Dodson in his weight class. He has 10 finishes in 15 professional wins and could be pushing for a stoppage to make amends for his loss against Johnson and to please his home fans.
In any case, Horiguchi is one of the safer picks to make on this card.
Jingliang Li ($10,300)
All action fighters like Jingliang Li are a DK player's dream. He lands an impressive 3.72 strikes per minute in his fights and is tough as nails. Despite his defense being relegated to an afterthought at times (3.6 strikes absorbed per minute), he has never been stopped in his career.
Based on those qualities alone, you have to like Li to beat Keita Nakamura. The latter hasn't fought in the UFC since 2006. He lost his last three fights in the promotion and has bounced around with smaller organizations since then. He's compiled a solid record at 30-6 but has wilted against top competition.
Li is the right pick on Saturday because even if he doesn't defeat Nakamura—which he should—he's going to throw a ton of punches to maximize a losing slot in your lineup. If he wins and doesn't get the stoppage, he's still liable to produce one of the more productive non-stoppage wins on the card.
Shinsho Anzai ($9,700)
Both Shinsho Anzai and Roger Zapata are carrying DK salaries of $9,700 heading into their preliminary bout. Anzai gets the edge in this toss-up because he's an absolute wild man with excellent striking.
He ran into a buzz saw in his UFC debut against the undefeated Alberto Mina, but Zapata isn't on that level. In defeat, Anzai threw 7.24 strikes per minute and landed 61 percent of them.
Zapata is a slow starter who likes to work behind the jab. That could be a solid strategy against an aggressive fighter like Anzai, but I believe the Japanese fighter's pressure and power will overwhelm Zapata.
In what could turn out to be a huge value selection, Anzai is the pick by first-round TKO.
Uriah Hall ($8,100)
You have to have a low-cost pick in any DK UFC contest, and Uriah Hall is the man to draft in this event with that concept. On pure talent, there's no one on the card even close to him. That said, he's underachieved in his UFC career and allowed himself to lose decisions to fighters he was simply better than.
He has won four of his last five fights and now has the toughest test of his UFC career ahead of him in Gegard Mousasi. As a grappler, Mousasi is one of the best in the middleweight division. He has great experience with 44 professional fights, and it wouldn't be a huge shock to see him outwork Hall en route to a decision victory.
It's also not hard to see Hall finally living up to his potential and scoring one of the highlight-reel KOs we saw him produce when he was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter 17. He's long, quick, explosive and well worth the investment at just $8,100 in DK salary.
Records, stats and physical references per FightMetric.com.
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