John "The Magician" Dodson pushed Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson to the brink when the two men met in March 2013, but he couldn't finish off the UFC flyweight champion when he had him hurt. In turn, Johnson was able to grind out a unanimous-decision win en route to what is now one of the most impressive championship runs in UFC history.
On Saturday in the main event of UFC 191, Johnson and Dodson will renew acquaintances. The action might look a little different, but Johnson will again prevail. When it comes to pure speed, Dodson is the only man in the UFC who can match Johnson. That's why this fight can go either way while on the feet.
That's also why Johnson will likely look to take it to the ground as soon as possible. Mighty Mouse is a far superior wrestler, and he could have his way there late in the fight. As physically talented as Johnson is, his most underrated skill is his fight IQ.
That's how he'll beat Dodson in the rematch. He'll mix in a few striking attempts only to set up the takedowns. He'll use this strategy to wear down and discourage his opponent. Late in the fight, Johnson will take advantage of a fatigued challenger and win the bout via submission in the fourth round.
Here's a look at the full card, predictions and odds.
Rumble Will Flatten Manuwa
If Jimi Manuwa stays true to his normal approach in the Octagon, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson is going to knock him out. Based on Manuwa's recent comments, there's no reason to think he'll do anything more than attempt to stand and strike with Johnson.
Per Elias Cepeda of FoxSports.com, the man they call the "Poster Boy" said:
No one is going to bully me in the cage. I will not be bullied. I will not step back—it is not who I am. We are going to be two trains meeting in the middle of the cage. Let's see who gets pushed back. I'm not the one who is going to take a step backward.
There may not be a light heavyweight in the world who can stand right in front of Johnson and beat him. Jon Jones is daring and good enough to try, but I'd even doubt Bones' chances to win that style of fight against Johnson. Rumble has five losses in his career and four of them have come by rear-naked choke.
Only accomplished wrestlers like Daniel Cormier and Josh Koscheck have been able to put Johnson on the mat and in position to choke him out.
Manuwa has yet to display the wrestling skills he'll need to take Johnson down, so we have to believe his come-forward, stand-your-ground approach is sincere.
It won't be a successful strategy, as Johnson will likely knock him out in the first round.
Mir Will Continue to Roll
Both Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski come into their co-main event scrap on a roll. Mir has won two fights in a row and Arlovski has been victorious in his last three bouts in the UFC.
Mir will be the only one on an unbeaten streak when this fight is over. Stylistically, this isn't a good fight for Arlovski. Mir's striking is improved, and he's sturdy. He's more apt to be able to take a shot from Arlovski and recover.
Ideally, Mir would love to take the fight to the mat. He's arguably the best heavyweight submission fighter in the history of the UFC. I predict he'll take Arlovski down in the second round and force him to tap from an arm bar, kimura or Americana.
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