The light heavyweight matchup of Ryan Bader and Rashad Evans could have been the main event on a lesser card than UFC 192.
On a card as loaded as the one set to take place Saturday, October 3, it serves as one of the delicious appetizers before a championship main event.
Bader and Evans are ranked No. 4 and 5, respectively, heading into the event, according to the UFC rankings. With a win, either would be in a great position to challenge the winner of the main event for the light heavyweight strap.
Here's a look at how the two match up statistically.
Fight Breakdown
By reputation, this is a matchup of two great wrestlers. Bader and Evans both wrestled at the Division I level in college, with Bader wrestling at Arizona State and Evans representing Michigan State.
However, only one of them truly plies their trade in the Octagon. As noted by Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics, Bader actually utilizes his ground game to control fights far more than anyone on the entire card:
Bader earned this shot against a top-five opponent by virtue of a four-fight winning streak that goes back to December 2013. It's a win streak that has largely come from his ability to take opponents to the mat and keep them there.
According to FightMetric numbers, Bader has opened a 20-2 advantage over his opponents in the takedown department. Combine that with his ability to maintain top control, and it's easy to see how he's earned four straight decisions.
In the same span of time that Bader has racked up a four-fight win streak, Evans hasn't even stepped into the cage. A series of injuries has kept the former champion from competing in the Octagon, which has led to questions about what kind of shape Evans will be in when he steps into the cage.
Bader went to Twitter to pose the question:
Evans doesn't think conditioning will be an issue, though. “He should know one thing: I would never get into the cage looking fat,” Evans said, per Case Keefer of the Las Vegas Sun. “But he should hope for that version of me because by him doing that, he’s messed up. He’s going to get the Rashad Evans that showed up and whipped Chael (Sonnen). Too bad for Bader.”
The Evans that defeated Sonnen in the first round still doesn't exactly resemble the wrestler that competed at Michigan State, though. While Bader has shown that his modus operandi is to take opponents down and keep them there, Suga has preferred to stand and trade with opponents.
He hasn't registered multiple takedowns in any of his last four fights.
With Bader's proficiency on the ground, Evans is likely to turn this into a kickboxing bout as much as possible.
Prediction
Evans' long layoff makes this a difficult fight to project. If he's truly back in top form, he should be able to win this fight. His wrestling is still elite and his athleticism should be able to ward off Bader's advances.
However, if years of fighting the best the light heavyweight division has to offer and injuries have started to take their toll, Bader has an opportunity to pick up the biggest win of his career.
The important stat to hone in on here is striking defense. Bader might not be the most polished striker in the world, but he's elusive enough that he rarely gets hit cleanly either. Given the long layoff for Evans, that will give Bader an opportunity to throw and land serious strikes of his own.
In the case of two fighters who appear to be on equal footing, the pick should be the fighter with the fewest questions. At this point, that has to be Bader. He has recent momentum on his side and could capitalize on the the opportunity to take his career to new heights.
Prediction: Bader via third-round TKO
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