UFC 192 has plenty of must-see fights, but Daniel Cormier's first attempt to defend his title against Alexander Gustafsson is worthy of main event billing.
The light heavyweight division might not seem quite right without Jon Jones at the top defending the belt, but it's definitely more unpredictable with Cormier as king. Gone is the aura of invincibility that comes with a champion who defended his belt eight times.
In his stead is a man who still only has four fights as a light heavyweight. Cormier earned the belt in impressive fashion with a win over Anthony Johnson, but he's already lost one of his four fights in the division.
Now, he'll take the next step in legitimizing his crown by taking on the No. 2 ranked Gustafsson. Here's a look at the tale of the tape between the two, including the latest odds from Odds Shark.
What They're Saying
If you're the type who needs a real sense of animosity between two combatants to get hyped for a fight, this might not be the encounter for you. Daniel Cormier has brought his usual banter to the table, but the reserved Swede hasn't really played along.
Cormier has consistently gone after the fact that Gustafsson's greatest claim to fame is that he lost a close decision to Jon Jones in 2013. All while bringing up the fact that the 6'5" challenger is also getting this shot on the heels of another loss to Anthony Johnson in just over two minutes, per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting:
Everything I've said is the truth. I think he should be annoyed by that. If you value your wins, and you value what you've done over the course of your career, then you wouldn't want people harboring over a loss, even though you fought extremely well.
If anything, a guy just lost in two and a half minutes. Why would you build him back up? If you think his confidence is already low, why should I rebuild it for him?
But if the pre-fight talk is to be believed, Gustafsson's confidence hasn't waned despite the loss to Johnson. He's simply tuning out what Cormier has to say and focused on the task at hand.
"I wasn't even listening," Gustafsson told Elias Cepeda of FOX Sports when asked about an event in which Cormier was doing his usual shtick. "I like to do my talking in the cage. That's what I'm good at so I'm sticking to that. I'm not much of a talker on a stage. I believe we're all professional athletes so we can show some mutual respect and wait until we get in the cage."
Given Cormier's penchant for hyping fights, it's difficult to believe that there's any actual disdain for his opponent. With Gustafsson refusing to even play along, the intrigue in this fight doesn't lie in its trash talk. Both fighters, however, have taken the time to talk about Jon Jones in the buildup to this fight.
Cormier recently reiterated that he is the light heavyweight champion and it's now on Jones to prepare to take that title away from him:
Gustafsson also entertained the idea of a rematch against the man who brought him into the limelight in 2013. "I'd probably fight Jon Jones again," Gustafsson said, per Lewis Mckeever of Bloody Elbow, on whether he'd prefer a rematch with Jones or a fight with Cormier. "That's the fight everybody wants to see. That's the fight I want to have again. I would do it for myself, but I would mainly do it for my fans."
The safest bet of the night might be that Jones comes up in the post-fight interview for whoever emerges victorious on Saturday night.
Predictions
There's a reason why the champion comes into this bout as a considerable favorite. Outside of his loss to Jones, he's looked dominant at 205 pounds. Cormier's blend of exhausting pressure, powerful wrestling and heavy hands makes him a tough out for anyone not named Jon Jones.
However, there is reason to believe that Gustafsson can walk away victorious. As Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report notes, his loss to Johnson by knockout might be overstated when analyzing how this fight will shake out:
The odds don't seem right. It seems the knockout loss to Johnson has made the betting public forget the vast majority of Gustafsson's career, which involved him moving constantly while using his height and reach to stick shorter fighters on the end of his strikes as they tried to walk him down. He produces a tremendous volume of strikes and wears his opponents down with output and pace
[...]
While it should be close, the pick is Gustafsson by decision in a major upset.
That's certainly a compelling case. Gustafsson utilizes his reach as well as just about anyone outside the champion, and Cormier stands at just 5'11".
However, this was the narrative before he fought Jones, too. Everyone questioned whether the challenger would be able to close the distance with Bones for long enough to do some damage.
As the fight developed, the answer to the main question was yes. Cormier was able to close the distance against Jones, as a vast majority of that fight took place in the clinch. What very few saw coming was Jones actually winning the clinch battle.
According to FightMetric, Jones outstruck Cormier in the clinch 40-22. So, closing the distance wasn't nearly as vital for Cormier as anticipated. Against Cormier, however, the ability to control where the fight takes place will be crucial.
Gustafsson hasn't shown the ability to do much damage in the clinch and only landed two strikes in the position against Jones.
Cormier is one of the best grinders in the game. Expect the former Olympic wrestler to work his opponent against the cage and use his powerful build to take this fight out of Gustafsson's comfort zone over the course of five rounds.
Prediction: Cormier by decision.
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