UFC 193 is a tough event to figure out if you're a DraftKings player. There are large disparities between the favorites and underdogs as it pertains to fighter salaries. Whenever that's the case, it's even more difficult finding fighters to draft.
The main event features the UFC's biggest draw, but is Ronda Rousey worth her huge DK salary?
Holly Holm's ($8,000) length, striking and fight IQ give her the best chance of anyone to beat Rousey. But I don't have the heart to predict an outright upset, though I've gone bold before—on more than one occasion.
Perhaps Holm doesn't have to shock the world to help you win. In DraftKings MMA contests, you have to either find a low-cost fighter capable of pulling an upset, or pick the most productive loser. Holm has a slight chance to be the former, but an even better shot at being the latter.
By a country mile, Holm will be the best striker Rousey has faced in her career. Holm is also the best athlete the champion will have fought. While Rousey has been working diligently on her striking, chances are, it's not superior to the skills Holm has honed during her lengthy run as a world-class female boxer.
Holm also has some powerful and rangy leg kicks that her opponents must avoid.
Believe it or not, Rousey's striking defense isn't stellar. She blocks just 51 percent of the strikes thrown at her and has absorbed 2.63 strikes per minute in the Octagon, per FightMetric.com. If this fight stays standing for more than a round, Holm's chances of doing something special rise significantly.
Something tells me Rousey will want to make a statement by beating Holm at her own game. She'll probably only go for a submission if she tries her hand at striking and can't get it done. Her search for a challenge could be her undoing.
Rousey's doing a little more than flirting with the idea of going to WWE. She's also a movie star, and Holm hasn't done anything to make this fight personal for the champion.
Mix all that in with the fact that Holm is an extraordinary athlete, and you have a formula for what could be a surprising main event at UFC 193 in Australia.
If nothing else, this fight will not be a first-round slaughter along the lines of what we've seen in almost all of the champion's previous fights. You can't draft all of the favorites, and you don't have enough DK budget to draft Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Give Holm a serious look.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Rousey has been the most dominant champion, but Jedrzejczyk ($11,300) has an easier matchup on Saturday. With all due respect to Valerie Letourneau, her grind-it-out style will not get the job done against the striking and takedown defense Jedrzejczyk brings to the table.
Jedrzejczyk is the best female striker in the sport, and Letourneau usually gets hit a lot. In her bouts, she has taken 3.73 strikes per minute, per FightMetric.com.
Against a fighter like Jedrzejczyk, that's not a good look. If you're looking for one of the most sure stoppage wins on the card, it's Jedrzejczyk over Letourneau.
Mark Hunt Will Smash Bigfoot
The first meeting between Mark Hunt ($10,500) and Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva is probably the single greatest heavyweight fight in UFC history. Unfortunately, the memory of the bout is a bit tainted by Silva's failed post-fight drug test.
Silva had elevated testosterone levels, and that raised the red flag.
The two are going to get it on again on Saturday, but don't expect it to be as competitive in the rematch. Since his suspension, Silva's record in the Octagon is 1-2, with his only win coming in his last fight against Soa Palelei on August 1.
Palelei is not a striker primarily, and he's also pretty darn overrated. Silva has struggled with proficient strikers in his career. He's also shown decreased effectiveness since the failed drug test.
Hunt has been knocked out in each of his last two fights, but the losses came against two elite fighters in champion Fabricio Werdum and top contender Stipe Miocic.
Silva is not on either of those guy's level. Because this fight will probably turn into a brawl, Hunt's power and superior quickness should allow him to connect first. With these guys, it may only take one punch.
Uriah Hall Will Make Another Statement
We've long known about Uriah Hall's ($9,800) outstanding ability, but he's beginning to live up to expectations. Fresh off a spectacular KO win over Gegard Mousasi in September, Hall stepped in for the injured Michael Bisping to battle Robert Whittaker.
Hall's quick-twitch athleticism and deadly striking will produce a KO win and a big piece of fantasy production. Whittaker's striking defense is poor, as he often gets emotional and reckless in the Octagon. We saw that in his loss to Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson in February 2014.
Since then, Whittaker has won three fights in a row, but he's yet to face a striker with tools like Thompson—until now. Hall will enjoy a six-inch reach advantage and an edge in speed and fight IQ.
Bank on a KO win for Hall.
Struve Will Solve Rosholt
Stefan Struve doesn't always use his 7-foot frame the way it should be utilized, but against Jared Rosholt, he has an opponent who will struggle to take advantage of his own strengths.
Rosholt wants to wrestle and use his strength to overpower opponents on the ground, but getting inside on Struve's legs is difficult. He has a respectable takedown defense percentage of 68 percent, per FightMetric.com.
If the fight does go to the ground, Struve's submission skills are notable. In his long UFC career, he's won by submission four times. Where the Skyscraper is vulnerable is in stand-up exchanges where his warrior spirit can get the best of him.
However, only some of the best heavyweights in the world have been able to find Struve's chin. Hunt, Roy Nelson, Travis Browne, Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem are the only men to KO Struve in the UFC.
Rosholt doesn't belong in those guys' company. Struve will win this one by lopsided decision or submission.
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