Sunday, November 15

UFC 193 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Rousey vs. Holm

When Ronda Rousey headlines a card, it isn't just an event. It's a spectacle. 

That's what's set to go down at UFC 193 when the Rowdy One will defend her women's bantamweight title against Holly Holm at Etihad Stadium in Melbourne, Australia. 

As the biggest star in the organization, every time Rousey fights it's sure to bring eyeballs to the TV screens. Regardless of who Dana White and Co. trot out to fight her, people have tuned in every time she looks to tear that person's arm off or otherwise humiliate them for all to see. 

It's less a fight and more a pure display of dominance. 

Rousey isn't the only women's champion making an appearance, though. Rising star Joanna Jedrzejczyk will look to defend her title against Valerie Letourneau in women's strawweight action. It's a bout that should give Joanna Champion a platform to show that she too can be a dominant champion. 

Here's a look at the complete main card along with odds and predictions for each bout. Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark

 

Knockout of the Night Watch: Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva

There's a simple equation that goes into this fight. Mark Hunt and Antonio Silva both have extensive histories of knocking people out. Of Silva's last 11 fights, 10 have ended in one person knocking out the other. A knockout has occurred in six of Hunt's last seven fights. 

The only fight that didn't end in a knockout?

Their fight against each other. 

Yes, these two beat the stuffing out of each other in their first fight to a majority draw in one of the most fun fights in UFC history. Even if it was eventually somewhat tainted by Silva's positive drug test

Since that classic fight, both of these guys have had their lights turned out twice.

With Hunt (41) and Silva (36) both getting pretty long in the tooth, the likelihood they survive a full three rounds of exchanging heavy leather isn't very good. Someone's going down. 

The Super Samoan's losses have come to better competition recently. That's enough to give him a slight edge in the "who will land the first knockout strike" sweepstakes. 

 

Breakout Watch: Joanna Champion

It's an odd thing to say that a champion will probably fighter who gains the most notoriety on a card. After all, he or she is already a champion. But that's the scenario for Joanna Jedrzejczyk. 

The 115-pound champion's last title defense was buried as a Fight Pass main event. Now, she gets to play second fiddle to the biggest draw in the sport in Ronda Rousey. 

There's a strong chance that she takes advantage, too. As noted in the odds above, she's actually a bigger favorite than Rousey to successfully defend her title. That's thanks to a striking-heavy style that should not only lead to a win, but the kind that will earn her some fans. 

Even Rousey herself admires the champion's style. 

"I love that Joanna is always going for finishes," Rousey said, per Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports. "She's not a point-fighter. She's all about being completely dominant at all time. And, she really ties everything together so well that it's not like you're watching a brawl. You're watching really high-level problem solving."

As Reed Kuhn of Fightnomics noted, she's far and away the most accurate long-range striker on the card:

 

Letourneau is a tough competitor, but that may actually be her downfall. Her game is largely predicated on bringing pressure and walking through strikes from her opponent. Against a precise and dangerous striker like Jedrzejczyk, that's a recipe for disaster. 

 

Greatness Watch: Ronda Rousey

The reason for tuning in to watch Rousey is simple. It's fun to watch greatness. 

Anyone who has followed her career in the Octagon knows the numbers. She's undefeated, most of her wins have come in under a minute and only one has made it out of the first round. If there's a way to quantify greatness, she passes every test. 

When there's a champion as dominant as Rousey, the question is whether there's a style out there that could stop him or her. In this case, how Rousey will handle a high-level striker with good movement. 

There's a narrative to be crafted that Holm could make things interesting against Rousey. Her background as a professional boxer has been highlighted throughout the buildup to this fight, but it is an important factor in the matchup.

As a boxer, Holm has plenty of experience with footwork and how to escape pressure. That's the key for her in at least extending this bout. If she's able to circle away from the pressure and back toward the middle of the cage, she could at least frustrate Rousey by making her chase her for a period of time. 

Unfortunately for Holm, that's only half the puzzle. Movement will get her only so far, but if anyone is ever going to beat Rousey, they will also need some power. 

Even though Holm has a boxing background, she isn't all that powerful. She only scored nine knockouts in 38 professional bouts. She has yet to knock out anyone in the UFC. 

Without a real threat of rocking Rousey, the champion will eventually close the distance and take her to the mat. Once it gets there, it won't be pretty. 

Expect yet another highlight for Rousey's already-impressive reel.

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