UFC 193 marks the promotion's first trip to Australia, so it's fitting the red carpet is getting rolled out, with Ronda Rousey putting her bantamweight championship on the line against undefeated challenger Holly Holm on Saturday night.
Rousey's fights have become legendary because of how quickly they end. The champion has won her last four bouts in a total of two minutes and 10 seconds. Holm is more methodical, winning her first two UFC fights by decision, so the contrast in styles makes for an interesting main event dynamic.
UFC 193 Fight Card
Fighter to Watch: Holly Holm
Holm gets the spotlight as the fighter to watch simply because there doesn't seem to be any hype around her, despite challenging for Rousey's title. The 34-year-old from New Mexico has two UFC fights under her belt, including one in the semi-main event at UFC 184, which Rousey headlined.
The only "problem" with Rousey's dominance is it's left UFC with few challengers to throw at her. Just going over the official UFC fighter rankings, the only fighters ahead of Holm who haven't fought Rousey are Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena.
However, Holm is ranked seventh on that list of women's bantamweight fighters. There was speculation before the bout was announced that Rousey would get a third fight against Miesha Tate, who had already lost to the champion twice.
Tate has given Rousey the biggest challenge of her career, taking their bout at UFC 168 into the third round. It's the only time in 12 fights that Rousey has needed more than one round to win a match.
As for why UFC opted to go in a different direction, president Dana White told Lance Pugmire of the Los Angeles Times that Holm presented a unique challenge for Rousey:
Everyone has jitters in their first fight. Holly came back from that and destroyed a woman who’d looked damn good in her previous fights. When you talk about the possibilities of what Holly can do … she’s a world-class boxer … the Holly Holm fight for Ronda is way more intriguing.
All eyes in the main event are going to be on Rousey, no one can dispute that. She's the biggest star in mixed martial arts, and she's one of the few athletes in any sport whom you have to make a point of watching because she has done such unique and special things.
Holm has a chance to shock the world with no one giving her much of a chance. Odds are heavily skewed toward Rousey, with Odds Shark listing her as a minus-1500 favorite.
Flying under the radar isn't a bad thing. Holm has no pressure on her, and a victory over Rousey will make her an instant superstar.
Fight to Watch: Mark Hunt vs. Antonio Silva
A fight between two heavyweights who have knockout power is one of the most exciting things in mixed martial arts. There's a reason the boxing community is yearning for depth in the heavyweight division, because it always makes things more interesting.
Saturday's main card fight between Mark Hunt and Antonio Silva is not going to have title ramifications. Hunt is 41 years old and has lost his last two fights. Silva is 36 years old and has one win since May 2013.
Looking at things from a long-term perspective, Hunt vs. Silva doesn't pop. Taking the fight as pure entertainment, though, it would be hard for any matchup to top this one.
It also helps that this is a rematch from one of the best heavyweight battles in recent memory: a five-round bloodbath at UFC Fight Night in December 2013 that ended in a majority draw. Silva was later stripped of his fight night bonus and suspended for nine months for failing a post-fight drug test.
As the numbers show, Hunt and Silva are knockout specialists. Silva has some grappling and submission skills in his arsenal, but he wants to stand and trade with an opponent.
Expectations for the heavyweight duel should be high after that first bout. Sequels always face an uphill battle living up to the original, but even if Hunt and Silva don't match that initial high, their styles mesh so well that it should be extremely entertaining no matter the result.
Main Event Prediction: Rousey def. Holm
It's hardly a surprise that Rousey is my prediction to win. I was tempted to go against the grain and say it wouldn't happen until the second round, but even that feels like stretching it.
This is a fight in which some of the numbers can be deceiving, at least on Holm's side. The challenger has a perfect 100 percent takedown defense rating on UFC.com, which would seem to be a huge advantage because Rousey is at her best working on the ground to get the armbar.
However, Holm's previous opponent, Marion Reneau, has not been credited with a single takedown attempt in three UFC fights.
According to Andrew Flowers of FiveThirtyEight.com, there is one opening Rousey presents that can work to Holm's advantage:
If there’s one argument in favor of Holm, it’s that Rousey’s hyper-aggressive flurry of attacks can leave her vulnerable to strikes. And Holm is probably a better striker than anyone Rousey has faced. Rousey’s striking defense stands at only 52 percent — meaning Rousey’s opponents connect half the time. Holm is a better defender, deflecting 69 percent of her opponent’s strikes. In short, when Rousey is not landing blows, she’s liable to be receiving them. Holm will hope to take advantage of this weakness.
Anyone who has seen a Rousey fight, will know she comes out of the gate like a charging bull. It's almost as if she is so anxious to assert her will that she has to run to the opposite side and start swinging.
That strategy has worked perfectly for Rousey thus far. None of her opponents seem to have any idea what to do with themselves, leaving them open to absorbing strikes and being taken to the ground.
Holm's biggest problem is that she doesn't possess true knockout power, despite coming from a boxing background. Her 15 knockouts in 47 fights (38 in boxing and nine in MMA) indicates she is better at methodically wearing down opponents.
Rousey is not the kind of opponent a slow and methodical strategy will work against. The contrast in styles gives the champion a significant edge and will ensure she retains her title in spectacular fashion once again.
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