Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez have both known better days.
While they aren’t quite down to desperation mode just yet, if either Pettis or Alvarez means to prove he belongs among the lightweight elite headed into 2016, then the co-main event bout at UFC Fight Night 81 on Sunday isn’t one either can afford to lose.
Depending on how things go, this could be a fairly meaningful crossroads in MMA’s most competitive weight class.
Once roundly considered the future of the 155-pound class, Pettis returns to the Octagon this weekend for the first time since March 2015, when he lost his lightweight title to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 185.
Since coming over from the WEC on a wave of hype in 2011, Pettis has seemed like exactly the type of fighter the UFC would want to use as its poster boy. Unfortunately, due largely to being perennially waylaid by injury, he’s never quite ascended to the lofty superstar status we granted him early on.
He was among the first fighters to score an individual sponsorship deal with Reebok when the apparel company became the UFC’s official outfitter last year. With his custom suits, Wheaties box cover and literally off-the-wall highlight reel, he appeared poised to be the sport’s next big thing.
And yet it was not to be.
As far back as December 2014, you can find UFC president Dana White lamenting the heights Pettis might reach if he could just stay healthy. During 2015, it was the loss to dos Anjos and then an elbow injury that kept him off our radar.
A proposed comeback bout with Myles Jury had to be scrapped in May, and Pettis spent much of the year as he’s seemingly spent the lion's share of his tenure in the Octagon—just trying to get his body right.
In the vacuum he left behind, Conor McGregor announced plans to invade the lightweight division and promptly hogged the entire spotlight. Because of all these factors, it feels like it’s been a minute since Pettis has been a relevant part of the title picture.
The former champ seems to know it, too.
“2015 definitely wasn’t my year,” he said last week during the Fight Night 81 media conference call. “In 2016, I’m looking forward to getting back to where I was at and staying where I was at.”
Alvarez, meanwhile, is coming off a split decision win over Gilbert Melendez at UFC 188, but he somehow still hasn’t been able to completely rebuild his reputation from a stinging loss to Donald Cerrone in his Octagon debut at UFC 178.
For years, Alvarez was regarded as one of the best fighters in the world outside the UFC. He spent the early part of his career trekking between promotions like Bodog, ShoXC and Dream before finally landing in Bellator MMA and winning its 155-pound title in 2009.
All told, Alvarez put up a 25-3 record by the time he signed with the UFC in 2014, on the heels of a lengthy battle with Bellator over his contract. Unfortunately, things haven’t been all gravy for him since then.
In that battle with Cerrone in September 2014, he looked so outsized and outgunned that spectators began to wonder if the buzz around him was more hype than substance. In the wake of it, he also had to pull out of a scheduled bout with Benson Henderson in January 2015.
Owing to his contract battle and his injuries, Alvarez fought just once each year in 2013, 2014 and 2015. That must have been frustrating for a guy who spent those formative years fighting three or four times a calendar turn, as he bounced between promotions and built his mystique as a headhunting boxer with a never-say-die attitude.
All of Alvarez’s good qualities were on display when he met Melendez at UFC 188 in Mexico City last June.
Melendez got the better of the opening stages, closing Alvarez’s left eye with a standing elbow and edging him in many of the sporadic early exchanges. But Alvarez never quit. As Melendez faded in the later rounds, Alvarez turned up the heat, using some timely takedowns and his trademark high-pressure boxing style to take control.
The judges’ verdict was a close one, but most observers agreed Alvarez deserved the come-from-behind victory. In the wake of it, Melendez tested positive for synthetic testosterone and was suspended by the UFC.
Now, Alvarez gets a much bigger test and a much bigger opportunity against Pettis. It sounds as though he’s anticipating another lengthy, back-and-forth battle, and he believes that will play to his strengths.
"I love the matchup for myself,” Alvarez told MMA Noise’s Mike Straka recently. “I feel like every guy [Pettis] has fought who was like me—who was not even as good of a version as me—has beaten him. I feel like I'm going to exploit where he needs work and not only that, stand-up wise, my ability to take damage and continue to give damage will overwhelm him."
It shapes up as a high-stakes battle for both men—and one fans are lucky to get on free TV.
For Alvarez, it’s the chance to erase any doubts about him as a guy who can challenge for the UFC title. If he can defeat Pettis, the misgivings we had about him following the Cerrone loss will likely evaporate. He could go right back to being the highly touted 155-pound slugger who spent the bulk of his career beating the best the rest of the world had to offer.
On the other hand, a loss makes him 1-2 since inking the deal to finally come to the Octagon. Just a few days removed from turning 32 years old, it wouldn’t be impossible for Alvarez to pull himself out of a hole like that, but you can bet he doesn’t want to wind up in the hole in the first place.
Meanwhile, Pettis faces even more risk and even bigger potential rewards.
Somehow, after all of his struggles, he remains the No. 1-ranked lightweight contender on the UFC’s official rankings. A win over Alvarez puts him in the pole position to face the winner of dos Anjos’ upcoming title defense against McGregor at UFC 197.
There’s simply no way to overstate how big a bout between Pettis and McGregor might turn out to be. With UFC 200 looming in July, you could make the argument Pettis should gun for McGregor as his next opponent no matter how Mystic Mac fares against the champion in March.
Even without McGregor in the mix, Pettis would make a compelling opponent for many of the other current contenders at 155 pounds. Who wouldn’t want to see him against someone like Tony Ferguson, Nate Diaz or Dustin Poirier?
A loss, though, leaves Pettis on the heels of back-to-back defeats for the first time in his career. He’s still just 28 years old, at least for another couple weeks, but he can’t afford to fall any further off the pace in the shark tank of the lightweight division. There are just too many big opportunities floating around right now for him to allow any more slippage.
Is it too much to say this fight is make or break for Alvarez and Pettis?
Maybe, but only by degrees.
It’s certainly very important for both of their career trajectories. It’s the chance to prove they are who we assumed they were during the good times and not who we suspected them to be during the bad.
It’s a chance to prove their best days are still ahead.
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