We are 22 years into this sport's existence. While it is not fully matured, its roots are firmly planted in the sports landscape. We've seen in recent years that fighters can become household names, that in-cage moments can bridge their way to pop culture and that the world at large will take notice of our best and brightest.
Today, we look back at the year that was in major MMA, as well as the 12 months to come. In some ways, the sport is healthier than it's ever been. In other areas, there is trouble.
The most positive developments include the rise of transcendent stars and new attempts to crack down on performance-enhancing drug use. However, there is a clear and seemingly growing discontent among fighters over a variety of issues. In the short run, that occasionally casts a pall over the in-cage action. In the longer term, however, perhaps it will be the impetus for change, improving the sport along with it.
In-Cage Action
For the UFC, 2015 was filled with compelling fights, with 41 events held. That was despite the considerable challenges the matchmaking team faced, with a total of 42 main or co-main events adjusted, postponed or canceled.
The promotion's efforts were saved by a robust roster that boasts considerable depth in most divisions. It helps that fighters such as Ronda Rousey and Conor McGregor have built themselves into megastars, in short order making their fights into must-see events.
The year gave us riveting matchups, including Robbie Lawler-Rory MacDonald II, Andrei Arlovski-Travis Browne, Jon Jones-Daniel Cormier and more.
The year was notable for its championship churn, as only three of the 10 fighters who started 2015 as belt-holders managed to hold onto their titles to start 2016. While Demetrious Johnson (flyweight) and T.J. Dillashaw (bantamweight) remained dominant throughout the year, Lawler needed a comeback fifth-round KO to hang onto his belt in his sole '15 defense.
2016 got off to a thrilling start with Lawler and Carlos Condit fighting a match for the ages. The rest of the year forecasts well, with Jon Jones back as an active fighter, McGregor set to chase a second belt, Dillashaw and Dominick Cruz sniping their way toward a showdown, newly minted star Holly Holm attempting her first title defense and Rousey's return from her first loss likely drawing major interest.
If Nevada Athletic Commission chatter is correct and his five-year ban is reduced, Nick Diaz may even re-enter the picture.
While the UFC is primed for another big pay-per-view year, much of it will be dependent on McGregor. If he can manage to defeat Rafael dos Anjos for the UFC lightweight belt, he'll become the first concurrent two-division UFC champion and take himself—and by extension the UFC—to a higher level. Rousey is likely to be less of a factor this year, with several Hollywood commitments limiting her UFC availability.
For the first time in years, the UFC has a fully financed rival beside it, as the Viacom-owned, Scott Coker-helmed Bellator moved forward with a new philosophy centered on more recognizable names and bigger events.
Bellator produced 16 shows, including a series of "tent pole" events designed to draw attention and serve as future building blocks. Recognizing its challenge in pulling in audiences, the promotion took chances, co-promoting "Dynamite," for example, a show that also featured kickboxing alongside MMA. In that event, it also hosted a rare one-night tournament.
While the promotion has some intriguing talent such as lightweight champ Will Brooks, flashy striker Michael Page and former UFC light heavyweight Phil Davis, a continued insistence on highlighting aged veterans in Ken Shamrock, Royce Gracie, Tito Ortiz and Kimbo Slice is a gamble, a possible trading of future potential for short-term gains.
Other organizations such as World Series of Fighting, ONE and Invicta occasionally make MMA news headlines, but not with any consistency, even though WSOF had one of the best fights of 2015 during a March bout that featured Justin Gaethje vs. Luis Palomino.
Emerging Talent
This is a category where you can see the philosophical variance between UFC and Bellator. Take, for example, Sage Northcutt, who the UFC immediately identified as a potential star and rallied behind. While that push has taken some criticism, the UFC hasn't hesitated to put its promotional weight behind him despite his age (19) and inexperience (only seven fights).
By contrast, look at Bellator's Brooks, who has a 17-1 record and holds the lightweight belt yet felt the need to launch a lengthy Twitter rant (via MMA Fighting) regarding perceived preferential treatment among aging names like Tito Ortiz.
To be sure, building a star isn't easy and has no clear blueprint, but Bellator trails the UFC in its ability to turn a young fighter into a draw. While the UFC has more self-created venues, including its powerful social media accounts and its own over-the-top digital channel, Bellator has not yet figured out a way to effectively leverage Viacom's considerable assets in star building. To be fair, it must be remembered that Coker has only been in power for 18 months.
The year saw the emergence of a few new stars, notably women's strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Meanwhile, others such as fellow strawweights Rose Namajunas and Paige VanZant, lightweight Northcutt, featherweight Doo Ho Choi and men's bantamweight Aljamain Sterling made notable forward strides.
For 2016, keep an eye on featherweight Yair Rodriguez, Thomas Almeida and Phil "CM Punk" Brooks, who may finally make his debut and potentially entice a huge audience despite the infinite questions regarding his cage aptitude. In addition, the UFC may finally be able to add to its active roster heavyweight Bilyal Makhov, who, at 6'5" and 280 pounds, is training for an Olympic wrestling run but is already signed with the UFC and could debut by year's end.
For Bellator, in the same vein, 19-year-old Aaron Pico is already under contract but is also making an Olympic wrestling run before turning his attention to MMA. How high are the expectations for Pico? Longtime MMA trainer Bob Cook, who helped shepherd the careers of UFC champions Cain Velasquez, Cormier and Luke Rockhold, told Dave Meltzer of MMA Fighting that Pico is the greatest prospect he's ever seen.
One other name to keep an eye on: Phil Hawes, an undefeated former collegiate wrestler who has drawn rave reviews from everyone around him, including Jon Jones, who called his potential "limitless," per Dave Doyle of MMA Fighting. Hawes is not officially contracted to any major organization, but he recently tried out for the upcoming season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he is believed to be a cinch for inclusion.
Finacnes
2015 was a banner year for the UFC. In a CNN interview, the company's chairman and CEO Lorenzo Fertitta trumpeted the company's record revenue, as it generated over $600 million for the year.
According to Bloody Elbow's John S. Nash, the UFC's 2014 revenues were $522 million, so 2015's increase represents an explosive 15 percent year-over-year gain.
Despite diversifying its business in recent years, the UFC's top revenue-driver remains pay-per-view (PPV), so its strong numbers were largely due to superstars such as Rousey and McGregor stimulating fans to click the purchase button.
Meltzer (via Bloody Elbow's Tim Burke) reported that UFC 193, which featured Rousey against Holly Holm, generated an estimated 1 to 1.1 million buys. Overall, Rousey's three headlining spots are estimated to have drawn over 2.5 million total buys, according to Meltzer (via MMAPayout.com). With those events retailing at an average of over $50 on cable and satellite, Rousey alone was responsible for generating over $125 million in PPV revenue, though it must be noted that the UFC shares that revenue with its distributors and would have received about half the proceeds.
McGregor also established himself as a box-office star, headlining two shows that are believed to have generated over 1.8 million buys (around $90 million in PPV revenue), which, again, is split between the UFC and its distributors. McGregor's long-awaited grudge match with Jose Aldo also drew a $10.1 million gate to the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, the largest gate in U.S. MMA history and second-largest of all time.
While Bellator is majority owned by the publicly traded Viacom, as one of a huge stable of networks and properties, its finances are not detailed in its SEC-mandated 10-K filing.
The only available information on Bellator finances comes from states that disclose gate information. Bellator's September event in California, for example, which was confirmed to be its biggest show of the year, drew a reported gate of $715,000. While this in no way gives a clear picture of its finances, it serves as a measurement gauge of where the promotion stands against the UFC's big events.
Again, to be fair, while its revenues lag behind the UFC's, Bellator's current management team is still young in the job.
Scheduling
At the end of 2014, the UFC took the unusual step of announcing its entire 2015 schedule, with 45 events. The promotion ultimately cut back four of those events, leaving it with 41 for the year.
International expansion continued, and for the first time, the UFC Octagon touched down in South Korea, Poland, Scotland and The Philippines.
For 2016, it took a more traditional approach, announcing only a handful of events to start the year. Interestingly, the UFC has only produced or announced eight events for the first quarter of the year, putting it on pace for 32. While that number is likely to increase, if the UFC stayed on that pace, it would put the promotion more in line with its 2012 numbers, when it produced 31 events.
While less shows may quiet critics of market saturation, there is one group that will be largely affected: the fighters.
The UFC currently has around 585 athletes on its roster. To get each of those fighters just two fights per year—and remember, most fighters would prefer to fight three times per year—the UFC would need to produce around 97 events of 12 bouts apiece. With fewer than half those events a near certainty, that means huge clumps of fighters will have stretches of inactivity. For evidence of that, witness the strawweight division, which does not currently have a single fight officially booked for any future UFC shows.
Out of its announced shows, the UFC has already booked debut trips to Croatia and the Netherlands. It also has a tentative date for Madison Square Garden in New York, although that is dependent upon long-awaited sanctioning in the Empire State.
Bellator has publicly stated an intention to grow, as Coker told Matt Erickson and John Morgan of MMA Junkie he expects the promotion to produce between 22-24 shows. By the end of 2015, Bellator had produced 148 events in its history, and none of them had been outside of North America. That will change in a big way in 2016, with Coker citing international expansion as a major goal. To that end, the promotion has already booked shows in London, Tel Aviv and Torino, Italy.
Israel and Italy, in fact, are two nations that have never drawn a UFC show, adding significance to Bellator's arrival in an attempt to claim the market. On the flip side, international expansion brings with it additional costs related to marketing and event production, making it a calculated but risky gamble. According to Bellator's press kit, it currently broadcasts its show to 134 countries and territories.
Initiatives
Fight Pass
When the UFC publicly announced its 2015 schedule at the end of the prior year, it promised 10 Fight Pass events. That mark was badly missed, as the promotion ended the year with only six.
However, it rebounded from an uneven start to end the year with significant momentum. First, it hired former Yahoo executive Eric Winter to oversee the growth of its digital streaming site. Then, the UFC closed out 2015 with two strong Fight Pass events—one headlined by former UFC champ Benson Henderson, and the other being an intriguing matchup between strawweights Rose Namajunas and Paige VanZant.
Reaffirming its commitment to the product, the UFC rebooked an anticipated featured bout between Dustin Poirier and Joseph Duffy on Fight Pass, then scheduled a February 27 Fight Pass show matching up two of the organization's all-time key stars, Anderson Silva and Michael Bisping.
The site also has deals with several promotions—including Invicta, Pancrase and Shooto Brazil—to broadcast events.
Drug Testing
In 2015, the UFC began a partnership with USADA with the intention of cleaning up a sport with a soiled reputation, largely on the strength of numerous positive steroid tests and several high-profile testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) exemptions.
The program took effect on July 1, with USADA announcing a minimum of 2,750 tests per calendar year. However, by the time the year ended, USADA had conducted only 353 tests on 156 athletes. To meet the minimum threshold, USADA would have had to conduct 1,375 tests. Just as notably, hundreds of UFC athletes were never tested. Even supplying time to ramp up the program, only 272 tests were conducted in the last quarter of the year, projecting out to 1,088 total annual tests.
The only fighter to be punished under USADA's watch has been Mirko Cro Cop, who admitted his own violation for use of growth hormone. Meanwhile, Gleison Tibau also faces punishment for allegedly failing two tests.
At any rate, the UFC's move for independent was not mandated by any law but a self-proclaimed desire to rid the sport of PEDs. Its ultimate effectiveness remains to be seen, but if you take the organization at its word, the goal is noble.
Weight Cutting
Singapore-based ONE Championship does not get much mainstream attention in the U.S. media, but the promotion suffered a high-profile tragedy when Yang Jian Bing died from complications suffered during a weight cut.
Extreme weigh-cutting has been a topic of debate in MMA for some time, but faced with that horrific incident, the promotion moved swiftly, announcing changes including a specific gravity test that are designed to have fighters compete closer to their natural weights. In a sign of its effectiveness, ONE's most renown fighter, American Ben Askren, quickly announced he would move up from welterweight, where he is the reigning champion, to middleweight.
The UFC has never suffered a fighter fatality, but has had several incidents of fighters suffering weight-cutting issues that require hospitalization, most recently including Johny Hendricks. While the UFC erred on the side of caution, sending Hendricks to the hospital and scrapping his October matchup with Tyron Woodley, a more formal policy might be a wise initiative.
For its part, the California State Athletic Commission recently held a weight-cut summit, which was attended by executives of both the UFC and Bellator. At that meeting, an overhaul of divisions to add additional weight classes was discussed, with the idea that more divisions would add more options for athletes to compete closer to their real weight.
The takeaway is that more action must be taken to protect fighters from extreme weight cuts, a development that is likely to continue into 2016.
Fighter Wellness
To that end, the UFC recently broke ground on a new campus, one that will include an Athlete Health and Performance Center. The center will include facilities dedicated to sports medicine, sports science and performance. The company has also spent its own money on athlete education, importing small portions of its roster at a time to Las Vegas to a mini-summit that stresses injury prevention and performance maximization, among other things.
This reinvestment to modernize training is still in its early phases, but it is worth keeping an eye on whether injury withdrawal rates are affected.
Major Issues
Sponsorships
With the Reebok deal taking effect in 2015, sponsorships are a prime spot for both trouble and opportunity in 2016. The UFC will continue to face criticism for pulling away the fighters' ability to trade on their persona during fight week in any meaningful way. While fighters can still accept sponsorships, the fight week uniform policy restricts advertising in a way that would make most companies back off paying a UFC fighter to represent them.
The uniform policy controversy has only been exacerbated by numerous and frequent gaffes made by Reebok, which show a troubling inattention to detail that reflects poorly on their commitment to the sport and its athletes.
That sometimes dark cloud is a silver lining for Bellator, which boasts a more open policy that allows fighters to accept sponsorship money for in-cage advertising. That policy could also impact free-agent decisions as an X-factor.
Fighter Pay
While the most marketable main-eventers like Rousey and McGregor can make millions on fight night, the vast majority of the 585 fighters on the UFC roster are not getting wealthy.
A starting contract for a newcomer generally comes with a standard offer of $10/$10, meaning a $10,000 fight purse and $10,000 win bonus, with small upward increments that are triggered by every win. Subtracting money for management fees, training fees and taxes, it's clear why many young fighters struggle to make ends meet.
That $10,000 salary, however, looks positively generous compared to some of those offered by Bellator, which regularly stocks its undercard with local fighters who are not members of the main roster. The organization is on record paying one fighter, Marcos Bonilla, just $1,000 for his April fight in the organization.
Fighter Lawsuit
In late 2014, the UFC was hit with a class-action lawsuit by former fighters Cung Le, Nate Quarry and Jon Fitch. Throughout 2015, the number of plaintiffs increased until reaching its current number: 11 (the others to join are Javier Vazquez, Dennis Hallman, Brandon Vera, Pablo Garza, Gabe Ruediger, Mac Danzig, Kyle Kingsbury and Darren Uyenoyama),
In October, the UFC lost in its motion to dismiss the lawsuit, paving the way for fact discovery that is expected to last through 2016. That also likely means major UFC executives including Lorenzo Fertitta and Dana White will face depositions. This could potentially unearth a treasure trove of previously private company information including financial documents, fighter contracts, sponsor and TV deals, and more, though it would only become public in certain instances.
As issues related to other gripes such as fighter pay and mandatory uniforms come to the forefront, there is the possibility that other ex- or even current fighters will join the action. Either way, the evolution of the lawsuit remains a story to watch.
2016 Spotlight Item
Free Agency
2015 saw a tug-of-war over former UFC light-heavyweight champion Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, who claimed a Bellator contract breach in declaring himself a free agent. While an appellate judge let Jackson fight in the UFC in April, afterward, Jackson's case went right back into legal system limbo, where he remains.
This year should see increased competition for free agents, minus the litigation. For the first time in several years, top UFC fighters are attempting to fight out their contracts in an attempt to test the market. Among those currently shopping themselves to the highest bidder are Alistair Overeem, Benson Henderson, Aljamain Sterling, Sarah Kaufman and Shawn Jordan. Meanwhile, others like Matt Mitrione have publicly stated an intent to fight out their deals and test free agency.
It will be interesting to see if this movement becomes a trend. If any of those listed free agents sign lucrative deals with another organization, that could tempt others to try the same tactic.
Bellator is clearly the top potential rival bidder. Scott Coker is on record saying no free agent is out of the promotion's price range, and he can pitch fighters on the ability to sign their own sponsorship deals, thereby increasing their earning power. With Bellator's aforementioned schedule boost, they will need additional, known talent to prop up main events and featured bouts, so known commodities who hit the market should see some demand.
Conclusion
If 2015 was a record revenue year for the UFC, 2016 is primed to rival it. While Rousey will be gone for the early part of the year, Holm has received mainstream attention, putting her into the mix as a potential pay-per-view draw. Meanwhile, with the possibility of two championships, McGregor could have a monster year. If he finally debuts, CM Punk will draw many curious eyes. Jon Jones' attempt to regain the UFC light-heavyweight belt, and then a potential move to heavyweight, are also headline grabbers. The UFC certainly has challenges ahead, but many of its stars are aligned for success.
Bellator has work to do to continue to build momentum and audience growth. Generally speaking, its in-cage action is exciting and high-caliber. However, promotions live and die with headliners, and Bellator's focus on aged stars may amount to a referendum on the promotion. Yes, it's attention-grabbing, but will the reputation of the promotion suffer? Will it find a way to create its own stars instead of recycling old ones? An inability to do so will continue to affect perception of its product.
Generally speaking, however, the state of MMA in 2016 is divided in two. From an entertainment standpoint, things are as good as they've ever been. The sport boasts two of its biggest stars ever, the in-cage action is engrossing and young talent abounds. Fans have never had more options. Outside of the arenas, there is a boiling lawsuit and a simmering displeasure from some of the athletes regarding the balance of power. That could lead to changes or it could stay where it often does, hidden away in the background. As we often note in the sport, anything can happen.
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