These bantamweight dynasties—they don’t last forever.
Just ask T.J. Dillashaw.
On Sunday, it was Dominick Cruz bringing Dillashaw’s reign to a crashing halt after 20 months on top of the men’s 135-pound division. Like Renan Barao and Cruz before him, the previously dominant Dillashaw is suddenly cast into rebuilding mode.
The good news is that the champion’s loss could mean new life for nearly everyone else in the weight class. Cruz’s resurgence not only put an exclamation point on one of the greatest comebacks in MMA history, but it might open some doors for a few guys previously locked out of the title picture.
Here’s a look at where the UFC men’s bantamweight division stands as we verge into 2016.
The Champion
Dominick Cruz
New boss, same as the old boss.
There is simply no way to overstate how impressive it is to see Cruz (21-1 overall, 4-0 UFC ) return from years of injury-induced strife and still looking like his old self. He’s fought just twice since October 2011 and was forced to vacate the title in early 2014 because he just couldn’t stay healthy enough to defend it.
Now suddenly here he is, back on top after a split-decision win over Dillashaw at UFC Fight Night 81. Cruz remains unbeaten at bantamweight and his skill set—particularly his mobility, footwork and counterpunching—is enough to give anyone in the division nightmares.
Having him back should inject the division with some excitement for the new year. The biggest question mark may be whether Cruz can remain healthy enough to meet a crop of relatively fresh challengers.
The Contenders
Who’s got the inside track to challenge Cruz for the gold?
T.J. Dillashaw
It would be a sad end for Dillashaw (12-3, 8-3) if it turned out he was just keeping Cruz’s seat warm for him while the real champ got healthy.
Fortunately for him, his bout with Cruz was close enough that—if it doesn’t result in an immediate rematch—he shouldn’t have to do too much to get a chance to get back his belt. One win, (tops) and Dillashaw should be right back in a championship opportunity.
The former Team Alpha Male product recently decamped for Colorado’s Elevation Fight Team to be closer to head coach Duane Ludwig and to be where he was offered a compelling financial package.
Can Dillashaw be just as good training in the Rockies as he was at the West Side Cool Guy Club on the shores of the Pacific? Only time will tell.
Renan Barao
Barao (33-3-1, 8-2) arguably benefits more than anyone else from Cruz’s fledgling second title reign. After two losses to Dillashaw during 2014-15, he was as far from relevance as he’d been since winning the interim title in 2012. Now Cruz reclaiming the throne might suddenly thrust him back into the mix.
That could be very good news for the fading former champion, who looked down-and-out for much of the last two years. Just 1-2 in his last three bouts and maybe still in the doghouse after pulling out of UFC 177 at the last minute due to weight-cut issues, Barao's career badly needed a lift.
Now maybe he's got it.
The other good news, if there is any, is that he's still just 28 years old and, therefore, should still have some good years left. The bad news is there’s already a lot of MMA miles on that body, so 2016 shapes up as a make-or-break time for him.
Let’s see what he has left in the tank.
Crafty old Urijah Faber (33-8, 9-4) is unexpectedly back in serious title contention for 2016. Owe that sudden upward mobility to his 2015 falling-out with Dillashaw, not to mention a blood feud with Cruz that dates back to their WEC days in 2007.
The Dillashaw mess made 2015 a questionable year pr-wise for The California Kid, but in between coaching a season of The Ultimate Fighter opposite Conor McGregor, he's quietly gone 3-1 in his last four.
After falling short in six consecutive UFC/WEC title bouts, will Faber finally once again wrap the gold around his waist at age 36? Crazier things have happened. He remains one of the more marketable fighters under 155 pounds, so don’t be surprised if he at least gets a seventh chance to win a major championship this year.
Raphael Assuncao
Raphael Assuncao (23-4, 7-1) fell off the radar of all but the closest observers, owing to 15 months on the shelf from a troublesome broken ankle. He missed out on a scheduled bout with Faber in March 2015 but will be right back in the contender mix whenever he is healthy enough to return.
With a seven-fight win streak in the Octagon and one win already over Dillashaw, it’s hard to deny the 33-year-old Brazilian’s claim to top-challenger status. At this point, only his own health and conceivably more lucrative matchups for the new champ could get in his way.
A Long Way to Go
These guys could still make a run at the title, but they’ve got some work to do.
Michael McDonald
Happy birthday to Michael McDonald (17-3, 6-2), who turned just 25 years old this week. It was probably a pretty good one for "Mayday," considering he's back on the cusp of contender status after spending all of 2014-15 sidelined with various injuries.
Even before that, high-profile losses to Barao and Faber had taken some of McDonald's shine—but he remains one of the names to know in this weight class.
Questions persist about whether he can compete with the best in the world, but his second-round submission win over Masanori Kanehara at UFC 195 was a good way to re-enter the fray. With Cruz’s reign offering new life to a host of top contenders, another win or two will easily bump McDonald back into the list of contenders.
Bryan Caraway
Bryan Caraway (20-7, 5-2) is the 135-pound man his peers (and fans) love to hate—mostly based on the fact that he dates longtime women’s bantamweight contender Miesha Tate—well, that and unconfirmed allegations that he's been a bit too choosy in picking his next fight.
In any case, the jury is still out on exactly how good Caraway can be. His record is above-average, but he hasn’t beaten a ton of top competition since graduating from season 14 of TUF. A win over Eddie Wineland in July 2015 was a good start, but Caraway has some strides to make if he aims to be taken seriously as a contender.
Takeya Mizugaki
It seems like forever now that Takeya Mizugaki (21-9-2, 8-4) has been the guy UFC matchmakers will call when they need a credible comeback win for someone else.
Who got the call to fight Faber immediately after he lost to Jose Aldo at WEC 48? Mizugaki. Who fought Cruz in his first bout back in nearly three years? Mizugaki. Who got tabbed to face Aljamain Sterling after Sterling had four consecutive fights fall through? Any guesses?
Mizugaki is 32, and his window is rapidly closing. If he ever wants to make a run, the time is now.
Johnny Eduardo
Johnny Eduardo (27-10, 2-2) is certainly the most anonymous man on this list of top fighters in one of the UFC’s more anonymous weight classes. Part of that is due to his status as a relative newcomer. The 37-year-old Brazilian has fought only four times since arriving in the Octagon in 2011.
On top of that, he’s sandwiched wins over Jeff Curran and Wineland with a pair of losses to Assuncao and Sterling. As of this writing, he’s still clinging to the No. 10 spot in the UFC’s official bantamweight rankings, but Eduardo needs to move quickly if he wants to be considered more than just an also-ran.
The Prospects
Who’s the next next big thing at 135 pounds? Probably one of these dudes:
Aljamain Sterling
Undefeated and ranked No. 5, the 26-year-old Sterling (12-0, 4-0) is obviously the hottest prospect in the 135-pound class right now. There’s just one catch. We don’t know if Sterling will remain in the UFC’s men’s bantamweight division.
He became a free agent near the end of 2015 and is intent on testing the open market to get the best price for his services. Sterling has been outspoken about the comparatively low compensation for athletes in MMA as well as how the UFC’s new exclusive outfitting deal with Reebok hurt his bottom line.
Sterling could have the goods to one day become bantamweight champion, but depending on which way his free agency breaks, the 135-pound class might soon have to soldier on without him.
Thomas Almeida
If you’re looking for breakout fighters of 2015, you might as well begin your search with Almeida (20-0, 4-0). The 24-year-old Chute Boxe Academy fighter made his promotional debut in November 2014 and—after a decision win in his first fight in the Octagon—has rattled off a string of three impressive stoppage victories.
2016 shapes up as a big one for Almeida. He’s already cracked the bantamweight top 10 and has shown considerable star power. All that’s left is for him to demonstrate he can hang with the top talent in the division.
John Lineker
Considering his eight-fight run in the flyweight division, it's admittedly unorthodox to lump John Lineker (26-7, 7-2) in with the prospects. We already know he's a pretty good fighter, and we know what he brings to the table: crushing power punches.
On the other hand, the Brazilian slugger is still just 26 years old and has yet to prove he can hurdle his biggest limitations (i.e., his weight), so perhaps the shoe fits—especially since we haven’t seen much of him at 135 pounds yet.
Lineker won his UFC bantamweight debut with a first-round submission of Francisco Rivera in September 2015. To become a player in his new division, however, he’ll have to do two things during 2016: prove he can consistently make the poundage limit and show that his fearsome power translates to this division the way it did at 125 pounds.
If he can do both, the future is bright.
The Last Word
Nobody is going to confuse men’s bantamweight with deep, talent-rich classes like lightweight and welterweight. Still, things have come a long way since the UFC brought 135-pounders into the fold in 2011. As we forge into a new year with Cruz back as champion, things actually stand to get pretty interesting.
There is no McGregor on the above list—that is, no polarizing figure who will suddenly launch bantamweight into the pay-per-view stratosphere the way the Irishman did for featherweight.
But seeing if Cruz can ditch his previous injury woes and remain dominant against a solid crop of veteran challengers and some exciting prospects should be fascinating.
Clearly the 135-pound class still has a ways to go before it can be considered among the UFC’s more marketable weight divisions. But bantamweight is on the rise. To paraphrase wrestling announcer Jim Ross, business might just pick up in 2016.
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