The prelude is almost over, with the excitement peaking from a press conference worthy of the presser Hall of Fame. In the future they'll study Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor's endless argument about who gives less of a f--k right alongside "I did not have sexual relations with that woman," "Playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs?" and all the other greats of an underappreciated art form.
And, if we're being honest, it might just top them all. After all, neither Bill Clinton nor Jim Mora punched anyone after he said his piece, and the stage didn't fill up with miscreants and deviants on either occasion. But these things happen in MMA.
All that remains, now that the dust is settled and the debate has been closed about whether or not a "gazelle" is an obscure animal, is the fight—ostensibly, the reason we've all come to this kooky party in the first place. Unfortunately, once the cage door closes, the back-and-forth may become decidedly one-sided.
Let's begin here with some admissions. Even though he once created a whirlwind of chaos looking to do me harm at a UFC Fan Expo, I am a stalwart Nick Diaz fan. I once even called him "the greatest man to ever live," and my tongue was nowhere near my cheek. No small portion of that admiration filters down to his little brother Nate, another delightful bad boy worthy of the highest esteem.
I'm also, of course, a huge admirer of McGregor. The traditional martial arts, once a laughingstock, have risen like a phoenix from the ashes of the original UFC. And McGregor has been at the front of that charge, using his movement, management of distance and dazzling technique to mesmerize everyone who has the pleasure of watching him fight. As a stand-up fighter, he's showing us the future of the sport every time he steps into the cage.
This is all to admit I am biased—but toward both men. These are the kinds of athletes—the living embodiment of the warrior ethos—who I want to see in this sport.
Despite that—despite all of his many wonderful skills and warrior's heart—I'm hard-pressed to see a path to victory for my beloved Nate Diaz.
At his best, much like his brother Nick, Diaz backs his opponent into the cage and unleashes with a never-ending torrent of punches. They come at all angles and with varying degrees of force, sometimes as many as 10 in a row. A master at working the body, Diaz throws in such volume that he often overwhelms an opponent's processing power.
It's death by a thousand cuts.
It's also a game plan that will be near impossible to pull off against a fighter as sophisticated as McGregor. The featherweight champion is a master of space and time. He'll find the right angles to be everywhere but where Diaz wants him, keeping the fight in the kind of wide-open spaces where he can roam free.
In a boxing match from the outside, Diaz can land a steady, solid jab and make fine use of his reach advantage. But that supposed reach advantage doesn't account for McGregor's kicks, which will come early and often.
His lead-leg side kick will stymie Diaz, much the way McGregor used it to frustrate top prospect Max Holloway during their fight in Boston. Not only will it do cumulative damage should the fight go the distance, but it will stop Diaz dead in his tracks, forcing him to reset and begin the chase anew each time.
The fight will most likely look like an odd dance, with Diaz lurching haplessly after McGregor while eating sharp counters and kicks for his trouble. His lone hope is that McGregor, who seemed to lose his composure at times during press events, chooses to stand in front of him and slug it out. But, if past is prologue, the Irishman has ice water in his veins once the bell rings.
There's an outside chance that Diaz, a gifted jiu-jitsu wizard, will try to take McGregor to the mat. There, the larger, more skilled fighter would have a serious advantage. But something about that strategy feels wrong to Team Diaz, too much like the "punk" wrestlers they've spent a decade decrying.
If the two end up clinching near the cage, Diaz has a stellar harai goshi he could use to judo-toss McGregor to the mat. But he's attempted just one takedown in his last five years of fighting. It would be entirely out of character for him to try one here on the largest stage under the brightest lights.
In the end, we are who we are in this world. Diaz is a born hunter. But, in this case, it's all those instincts that will make him prey. This is McGregor's cage. And we all better get used to it.
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