Saturday night's UFC 196 main event isn't the one we'd all hoped for, but it's a great fight all the same.
When Nate Diaz replaced Rafael dos Anjos in the main event against Conor McGregor, a whole new slew of questions were raised. The stylistic matchup between Dos Anjos and McGregor was one of the more intriguing matchups in recent memory, but Diaz—the fiery, mouthy and skilled boxer with a devoted hardcore fanbase—offers up challenges of his own.
How does Diaz match up with McGregor? Well, I'm not a technical analyst, so I decided to turn to two experts in the field. Dominick Cruz, the UFC's bantamweight champion, is considered one of the smartest minds in the sport and one of the UFC's best analyst. Brian Stann, former light heavyweight and middleweight, is also considered to be the cream of the crop when it comes to breaking this stuff down.
Cruz and Stann join me to look back at how McGregor and Dos Anjos matched up, what we can expect to see from Diaz and what might be next for McGregor if he wins on Saturday night.
Jeremy Botter: Plenty of us were disappointed to see Dos Anjos pull out of this fight, mostly because we were so interested to see how they matched up stylistically. How do you feel they matched up?
Dominick Cruz: I thought he matched up well with Dos Anjos. I actually picked McGregor in that matchup. A big part of his success is he takes a smart approach in how he attacks the fight game. He made himself so relevant to the fans from the beginning that he could essentially pick any fight he wanted. When you’re facing the best opponents in the world, everyone is good.
The question is how does your puzzle fit with their puzzle. There are certain puzzles that you put together that just don’t match. It doesn’t matter what you do, they just don’t match. Conor has found every single puzzle that he matches with and that he can beat up. It doesn’t matter how good they are, because when certain styles face other styles, there’s just no way to beat them.
With Dos Anjos, I think he had the makeup to beat him because the gifts that Dos Anjos has, Conor has the ability to take them away because of the range, size and the power that he possesses in his hands.
Brian Stann: I think he matches up well with Dos Anjos. I wouldn’t go as strong as Dom did. And that’s because Rafael doesn’t just do everything well; he does everything really, really well. He strikes very well. He has excellent footwork. He can wrestle, and he can grapple. And he’s the bigger, stronger guy.
After what he did to Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz and others, I don’t think there were a whole lot of lightweights that looked at Dos Anjos and said, 'OK, I really believe I can beat that guy.' But then there’s this kid who looks at him, who really believes that his timing and footwork can beat the power and athleticism of RDA. I don’t think Conor is a lesser athlete, but I think Dos Anjos would have been the stronger athlete and the bigger athlete. I think we would have seen a five-round war where both guys would have won rounds.
There would be a lot of momentum shifts. And barring any freak finishes where either guy won with one shot, that would have been an epic contest between two guys putting on an exceptional fight.
Botter: Nate is an entirely different kind of opponent, obviously. What makes him a different kind of opponent for McGregor? What challenges does he present?
Cruz: Nate always has a distinct gift with his boxing. That’s his skill set. People that say Nate has a boxing advantage, he has that because that’s his strength. The difference with Conor is that he has the ability to adjust because he has other options. So while Nate has boxing ability, McGregor has kicking ability, boxing ability and range ability.
Stann: There have been a couple of times in my analyst days when I’ve underestimated Nate Diaz a little bit, and he has proved me wrong. He is a guy that can come out and surprise you. The Michael Johnson fight? I didn’t expect what I saw there. Diaz made an adjustment to his range in the middle of the fight and took over that fight, and he was outstanding.
Cruz: As fighters, you look at the weapons people possess and how they are going to affect your game. And Nate Diaz does not kick. He doesn’t check kicks. He doesn’t move. He stays stationary, and he boxes you in high numbers. So you just have to look at that and say that ever single fight Nate has had, he’s fought with that one style and that one style only. Every time he’s lost, he’s lost with that style. You can’t say the same thing with McGregor, because he has a completely different look that he can bring depending on the opponent. He adjusts according to your strengths and forces you to deal with your own weaknesses.
Stann: We’ve seen Conor show a couple of different styles. There are a lot of variations to what Conor can do on the feet. With Diaz, you know what you’re going to get: a pressure-based fighter who can put a lot of volume on you with really solid boxing. He’s going to keep those hands on your face and make it difficult for you to counterstrike him because you just can’t reach him. But he leaves that lead leg open to get chopped up all night long.
Botter: What does it say about McGregor, that he is willing to move up two weight classes from his last fight to take on a tough opponent?
Stann: It takes an extraordinarily confident mentality. It takes someone who has a real belief in their skills, and that doesn’t come around a whole lot in this sport.
But it’s unfair to say he’s jumping up two weight classes, because Nate is not a true welterweight. He spent some time up there and wasn’t too successful because he is most effective at 155. So I think Conor is really climbing up one weight class.
But the mentality it takes for a guy to win a belt and then call out the champion above him who is running through the best in his division? That really impressed me and made me think that as good as Conor has looked in the Octagon, there may be a few things we haven’t even seen yet.
He may be even better than we believe he is.
Cruz: We know that he’s willing to fight anyone at any time. I’ll give him that. But like I said earlier, he picked the fight. He said it himself. And the fact that he picks his fights, it’s hard to see what you’re learning about someone.
On top of that, I’m learning that he can handle the last-minute opponent changes and the changes in style. But in my opinion, this stylistic matchup is no different than what he has faced so far. He still has not faced a high-level wrestler other than an out-of-shape Chad Mendes.
We’re not learning much from this bout. He still hasn’t tested himself as a championship fighter.
Botter: There has been talk that McGregor could move up to face Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title at UFC 200. We know he's willing to face anyone, but is Lawler a bridge too far?
Stann: I honestly believe he has a shot in that fight. And there are a few reasons why, and I say that with all due respect for Robbie. But Robbie has some miles on him, and he has been in some wars. And when you watch smaller guys spar bigger guys in the gym with big gloves on, I will tell you that most of the time, the smaller guy wins. Speed kills.
In this case, you have a younger, faster fighter with the kind of power that transcends weight classes taking on a stationary striker in Robbie Lawler, who really has no issues being hit and who isn’t known for his defense.
If Conor were to lose to Robbie, it doesn’t damage his brand that much. He would become like a cult hero to the fans for even attempting to take on the welterweight champion who has looked fantastic recently. But I think he will think about doing that just because of the specific matchup Lawler presents.
If you were to see a Tyron Woodley or a Stephen Thompson hold that belt, I think it would slow down the talk of Conor wanting to go to 170 pounds and chase the belt.
Jeremy Botter covers mixed martial arts for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter.
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