When Carlos Condit and Demian Maia square off Saturday at UFC on Fox 21, it's entirely possible a welterweight title shot will hang in the balance.
That makes sense. Maia (23-6) has more degrees on his black belt than most professors have on their office walls. A career resurgence put the 38-year-old grappling legend on a five-fight win streak entering this contest.
Condit (30-9) is 1-2 over the past couple of years. But hold the phone. One of those losses happened because of a freak injury suffered against future champ Tyron Woodley in 2014. The other came to then-champ Robbie Lawler early this year in a close-as-can-be affair most believe will be Fight of the Year when 2016 shuffles off stage.
These are two great fighters who appear to be at the tops of their games. No surprise, then, that Odds Shark had the bout even as of Wednesday morning.
With a bout this close, every tiny thing plays a role. So what are the key factors? The striking of Condit versus the grappling of Maia? The six-year age difference between the two?
Nope. The key lies in the calendar.
The UFC scheduling calendar, to be exact. As fans may recall, Condit-Maia was originally set to appear on last Saturday's UFC 202 card. But just more than a month ago, UFC brass moved the fight to the top of UFC on Fox 21.
No big deal until you remember that every UFC main event is five rounds. This scheduling change extended this fight from three rounds to five, adding 10 minutes of potential runway to this matchup.
In 23 UFC fights, Maia—who, again, is 38 years old—has entered the "championship" round on three occasions and has a 1-2 record on said occasions. He has done it only once in the past three years.
The 32-year-old Condit has competed past the third round five times in his pro career, most recently earlier this year in that epic with Lawler. Most observers had Lawler taking the final round, with Condit grabbing Round 4. Despite that, Condit was the fresher man at the end, with a wild finish almost stealing the final round and the belt.
"Condit fought back like no one else could," wrote Bloody Elbow's Connor Ruebusch of the bout's final moments. "Somehow he stayed on his feet, eating punch after punch but refusing to go down. Still not recovered, he came after Lawler with combinations as the exhausted champion checked the clock, wondering how a minute-and-a-half could feel so long."
Bottom line: Condit is known for waging five-round battles and having the cardio to do it. Maia? Less so. Although the Brazilian's ground skills are not in dispute, he is not a black belt in the ways of endurance.
You know who knows all this? One Carlos Condit. He knows a five-round fight is a big check mark in the Condit column.
"I feel like it gives me more opportunity to do what I need to do in this fight," Condit said recently on Toe-2-Toe with Brian Stann (h/t MMA Fighting). "Which is create openings to implement my game against a very tough guy to fight."
Condit's game is famous for its razor-sharp, take-no-prisoners punch-kick combinations. But there's so much more refinement to it than that. He's no slouch on the ground, but in cases where he has a distinct disadvantage there, Condit can work behind his jab for a stick-and-move effect (perfect for facing Maia, who is decent but chopping and slow as a striker).
Keep off the ground, stay on your bicycle and make Maia catch you. That tires Maia out and increases the likelihood of a long-running bout. Both of those just might skew a close bout in favor of Condit.
Scott Harris writes about MMA for Bleacher Report. For more, follow Scott on Twitter.
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