UFC 202 on Saturday is the opportunity that Conor McGregor has been waiting for since last March. Nate Diaz was simply an opponent back then who was stepping in against McGregor because Rafael Dos Anjos was injured.
Diaz took the fighter with McGregor at UFC 196 on 11 days' notice, and he originally seemed to be cannon fodder for the aggressive featherweight champion. But in this sport, there are no guarantees.
Diaz stepped into the breach, caught McGregor and submitted him.
McGregor did not give Diaz the necessary respect in the first fight, and that may be why he lost. Or Diaz may be the superior fighter, and that's why he was able to get the best of the UFC's No. 1 star.
"Fans can look forward to a ferocious fight," McGregor said in a news conference, per Lyle Fitzsimmons of CBS Sports. "I'm going in there with ruthless intention. They can look forward to an improved athlete, a focused athlete. It's going to be one hell of a fight."
Diaz said he has been preparing in all aspects of the discipline for the McGregor rematch at the T-Mobile Center in Las Vegas, per Fitzsimmons: "I'm a mixed martial artist. You kick, you grapple, you everything. It's a mixed martial arts fight. I always train hard to be in the best shape I can, in or out of season. We're going to have to get in there and see what happens in the fight. That's what I'm here for, that's what we're all here for."
There is plenty of vitriol between the two fighters, and it manifested in a parade of epithets, profanities and thrown water bottles in the pre-fight news conference.
While McGregor lost in a shocking manner the first time around, don't expect that outcome to be playing inside his head once the rematch gets underway.
He may be bombastic and overbearing, but he is a professional who will concentrate on the things he needs to do to win.
McGregor is the faster fighter and will have to use his speed if he is going to win the rematch. He has to get in and out quickly, capitalizing on his edge in speed to launch his own attacks and frustrate Diaz into missing with combinations.
McGregor also must get in his strikes, as he did in the first fight. While he lost on a choke, he landed the more significant blows before he got caught. He connected on 61 key strikes before the fight came to its conclusion, per FightMetric.
The two most important factors for McGregor are his quickness and his ability to land key punches. He does not want to get into a battle of strength and power, because that's a recipe for disaster.
Diaz wants to use his size and strength. He should be able to win the exchange, and he also has demonstrated durability and stamina in the past.
That's vital against McGregor, because the Irishman loves to go for the knockout. Diaz has shown he can absorb punishment and keep on coming without going down or getting seriously hurt.
You can never overestimate having a tremendous chin.
Another factor for Diaz is his jab. He is capable of sticking that punch in McGregor's face and keeping him at bay.
Diaz's size and strength will give that jab added zip and could frustrate McGregor. That will give Diaz the opportunity to carry the rounds and build up an edge on the scorecards.
Diaz is merely adequate when it comes to defending takedowns. He has to make sure McGregor does not gain the advantage on the mat and get a chance to deliver ground-and-pound.
Prediction
McGregor is the most popular attraction in the sport, but that won't be the case if he loses this fight. He is smart enough to know that his wallet will suffer if Diaz beats him again.
McGregor's best chance is to use his quickness and hammer Diaz with a barrage of punches. However, Diaz excels at taking a punch and won't be intimidated.
Look for McGregor to get frustrated if he doesn't take out Diaz in the first two rounds. That frustration will give Diaz an opportunity, and he will earn a late-round submission and beat McGregor for the second time this year.
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