"Luck is for losers."
Say this much for CM Punk: He must save a ton on safety nets.
As the former pro wrestling star prepares for his pro MMA debut Saturday at UFC 203, Punk (real name Phil Brooks) is doing so in a headwind partially of his own devising. Insulting Lady Luck was a mere trifle.
When he steps in Saturday against talented youngster Mickey Gall, it will be Punk's first sanctioned MMA fight, amateur or professional. He will be 37 years old. He will have a history of back and shoulder problems. He will have no combat sports background to speak of.
Oh, and he spent most of his adult life ruling the game many MMA fans view as their sport's embarrassing older sibling and, in the run-up to his fight with Gall, has been trolling those individuals. For a great example, check out his deadpan hot tub descriptions and other things of that ilk in the episode of the UFC's Embedded series wherein he gives a tour of his house (Note: video contains some NSFW language):
So, yes, there is going to be a bit of naysaying.
Do the naysayers have a point? Punk, for one, isn't going to try to talk you out of that stance. His days of heavy promotion, that gift of carnival gab that helped earn him celebrity status, are in the past, along with professional wrestling.
"I don’t see the need for it," Punk said of cutting promos during a UFC 203 media conference call attended by Bleacher Report. "People either love me or hate me already. I’m not trying to talk anybody into the building on this one. I think the allure is just the fact that it’s happening, and the story writes itself. So it’s not a fabricated thing where I need to create some drama between me and Mickey. We’re going to fight. That’s the beauty of it...With [MMA] you get in there and you’ve got to win and it’s nobody else’s decision."
So when the goal is for the fight to do the talking, what, exactly, will his performance say? And perhaps more importantly, what does it need to say for all the CM Punk naysayers to finally get excommunicated to the hinterlands where they belong?
Defining Success
"I think success is defined by the individual, you know?" Punk said during the media call. "I’ve had a successful camp. I’ve had bumps in the road. To me, fighting in the Octagon is a success. I think walking in there is a success."
There are plenty of different ways to define success. Here, Punk is setting the bar at a height that pointedly does not cover actual winning. It's a good way to claim victory without, you know, claiming victory. And that makes sense, given the aforementioned headwind into which Punk knowingly ventures here.
What's more, there's another definition of success at play here, and it involves what we all, at the end of the proverbial day, know is really happening. No one will be able to read the true metric of Punk's success until several days after UFC 203, when the pay-per-view buy estimates for the event come out.
None other than Jim Ross, the longtime WWE commentator, said this to MMA Junkie Thursday regarding Punk:
I don’t want to say it was a publicity stunt, because that would be inaccurate, but I thought it had a lot of publicity stunt elements to it. You sign a guy, based on his being a major fan of the genre of MMA and being an amateur practitioner of muay thai, being a student of the game, no doubt about that. But, also being 37 years old and never having a fight. So why would they sign him to a three-fight deal, as I recall? Because he brings a great marketing opportunity with him because he has name identity. ...What they’re going to get out of him this week is additional pay-per-view buys they may not have received if Punk was not on the card because we’re talking about him.
Is a big buy number, or just getting in there, truly sufficient to make this a successful night for Punk? In all honesty, it probably is.
Back in 2014, when the Punk signing occurred, the UFC was casting about for stars. It was post-Anderson Silva and post-Georges St-Pierre but pre-Ronda Rousey and pre-Conor McGregor. That, in all likelihood, is what led to an offer to Punk. It was probably a nice offer. All Punk had to do was pick up the phone. That may well be what success looks like, even if the night doesn't technically end with your hand in the air.
How Will He Fare?
No matter what success means or doesn't mean for Punk, inside the cage, there's still a fight to win or lose. Punk's injury history reared its head during his MMA training—nearly two years elapsed since he announced his UFC signing to UFC 203—and it could during the fight. How will a man who has had back surgery move around inside the cage?
As Ross alluded to, Punk has some fighting experience, although it's primarily with Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Is it possible his grappling game is good enough to earn a submission on the ground? Yes, it is possible.
What's less possible is Punk being able to get Gall to the ground in the first place. The unheralded, 24-year-old Gall (2-0) is a good athlete and a well-rounded fighter who began training in multiple MMA disciplines from a young age—sort of the anti-Punk, if you will. Ergo, Gall has real submission chops and solid boxing to boot.
In short, Punk would appear to be at a marked disadvantage in every phase of the matchup.
To his credit, Punk has been fairly humble about his own skills, often bending over backward in deference to his coaching team at Roufusport, the Milwaukee gym led by former kickboxer Duke Roufus and populated with the likes of former UFC lightweight champ Anthony Pettis and ONE Championship welterweight kingpin Ben Askren, among others. Punk also takes pains to acknowledge that, despite being 37 years old, he is still a novice in MMA.
"I think my aptitude is just absorbing everything," Punk said during the media call. "You know, I got three head coaches pretty much. We got a revolving group of people who’ve been helping me with wrestling and on top of that, you know, I train with killers and champions. It’s a lot to take in but I was a sponge and I am a sponge and I just, you know, to me that’s what it’s all about."
According to sports betting site Odds Shark, on early Friday morning Punk was a significant +300 underdog. But maybe that's not an all-encompassing enough mechanism. Punk, if you agree to grade on something of a curve, already has all the winning he needs.
"I've said it ad nauseam: It’s about the journey," Punk said. "It’s about finding out about different disciplines and learning from everybody from all walks of life, but my mindset I think is probably my biggest tool."
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
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