Capturing the UFC Heavyweight Championship is one thing; defending it is a different matter altogether.
That's the challenge Stipe Miocic faces when he welcomes Alistair Overeem to Cleveland in the main event at UFC 203 on Saturday.
As a Clevelander, Miocic will have a raucous home crowd backing him, but keeping the heavyweight belt has been difficult historically. No one has defended it more than twice. Eight of the 18 champions in the organization's history have failed to defend it even once.
The Reem figures to be a tall task for the new champion. He comes into the fight with a four-fight win streak over some of the best fighters in the division.
Here's a look at the matchup from a numbers perspective. We'll also go over how both fighters got to this point and offer up a prediction.
How Overeem Got Here
Overeem is one of the true veterans of the sport in the heavyweight division. He has more than 50 professional fights on his resume.
He has fought some of the biggest names in the sport. From Chuck Liddell and Shogun Rua to Junior dos Santos and Brock Lesnar, he's mixed it up with some of the most popular fighters in history.
The Reem believes that his many years of experience will be a deciding factor against Miocic.
“In my career, 22 years of training and competing, I’ve fought in front of hostile Russian crowds, Japanese crowds where no one knew me, all kinds of audiences,” he said, according to Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports. “Anything you can imagine, I’ve lived it. I know how to deal with it. I’m not expecting to be cheered, but that’s OK. The crowd and its cheers aren’t going to decide the fight.
Yet, despite 41 MMA wins, he's never had a crack at the UFC title.
That's because Overeem's career has been characterized by both good and bad runs. For every tear that he has went on that made him look invincible, he's suffered questionable losses that make everyone question if he'll ever be a champion. For instance, before his four-fight win streak that led to this title shot, he went 1-3 with losses to Antonio Silva, Ben Rothwell and Travis Browne by way of knockout.
But a transition to Greg Jackson's gym has benefited Overeem. After losing to Rothwell, the Dutch striker moved to the gym in Albuquerque, New Mexico, and has come out a much more patient and efficient striker.
The results have been obvious.
Instead of attacking with hubris and getting knocked out on a consistent basis, Overeem has become a more calculating striker who puts people away, but only when he has the right opportunity.
It's been a long road, but the new Overeem is the best version to give the current champion trouble.
How Miocic Got Here
Miocic has always been an intriguing prospect in a division that is relatively devoid of them.
He came into the UFC in 2011 as a Division I college wrestler who also played collegiate baseball; he was the rare heavyweight who had athleticism to go with some knockout power.
As Miocic has gone from intriguing prospect to proven veteran and champion, he too has seen his game evolve.
In general, he is the consummate volume striker. His 4.93 significant strikes per minute is a game-changer and uncommon for heavyweights not named Cain Velasquez.
However, Miocic can become a counterpuncher when necessary. In this UFC highlight of his win over the former champion Fabricio Werdum, he won the title when Werdum looked to land a big shot of his own and Miocic cracked him with a counter that put the champ down.
Miocic is on a winning streak of his own, albeit one that isn't as long as the challenger's. That's probably why oddsmakers have him as a minus-145 favorite, per Odds Shark.
After losing a tough Fight of the Night decision to Dos Santos in December 2014, Miocic has knocked out Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski and Werdum to become the UFC champion.
Prediction
As is the case with most heavyweight matchups, this fight could boil down to who hits who first. Both Miocic and Overeem have excellent power, and it's evident in the combined six finishes in their last seven fights.
Still, predicting that the guy who lands the first clean strike will win is a cop-out.
Instead, let's take a look at the fighter who is equipped to win a more drawn-out affair.
Right now, that's Miocic. The more patient Overeem has avoided being knocked out since moving to Jackson's gym, but The Reem who can be drawn into a slugfest and knocked out is still inside him somewhere.
That's important, because as Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report notes, Miocic cannot only pressure but also has a knack for landing counters when he needs to.
Expect Miocic to pressure early and put Overeem in a position where he feels the need to press the action. If and when he falls into that trap, Miocic will be prepared with a counter to defend his belt.
Prediction: Miocic via third-round TKO
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