Ronda Rousey is back, but she's entering the Octagon against arguably her toughest opponent to date. And yes, that includes Holly Holm.
Rousey has been a ghost throughout fight week. Besides having a cameo role in a couple of the UFC's Embedded episodes, she hasn't done much (or anything, for that matter) to promote UFC 207.
Rousey vs. Amanda Nunes is a unique bout in that respect—no pre-fight press conference, no open workouts, just fighting.
This is Rousey's comeback fight. The UFC is making a huge mistake by allowing her to dictate the terms of her return.
Another thing that has been forgotten in the buildup to the main event is the actual champion of the women's bantamweight division. It's as if the entire world forgot that Nunes is defending her belt for the first time Friday night in Las Vegas after submitting Miesha Tate at UFC 200.
In case you missed Thursday's weigh-in, here's a look at Nunes and Rousey's first faceoff all week:
Nunes is a monster in the cage, which fits her nickname "Lioness" quite well.
How Amanda Nunes wins
Nunes has the blueprint to defeat Rousey.
She's studied the Holm fight and seen how she can use her superior boxing skills to take advantage of the bout. Not only is Nunes an excellent boxer, but she's also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has a brown belt in judo. She's a well-versed fighter who seems prepared for any situation.
Nunes had this to say about facing Rousey in the Octagon to Damon Martin of Fox Sports:
I think I have ways to win everywhere. Of course, Ronda’s a pretty tough opponent but so is every single girl in this division — but I’m better than all of them. I will show again one more time I am the best in this division. I’m ready to show this and make a statement to this division.
It could be a TKO, it could be a submission, whatever she gives to me. Whatever mistake she makes, I will take over this fight in the second, the third, the fourth, the fifth (round). MMA is a box of surprises. I don’t know what’s going to happen. I am going to finish her but I don’t know when, the first, the second, I don’t know. I always have opportunities to finish in the first round. If she gives me the opportunity, I will take it.
While going to the ground against an opponent who medaled in the Olympics might not be the best strategy for a victory, Nunes feels confident in her all-around game. Like the rest of us, she's curious to see how Rousey reacts to being back in the Octagon after a 13-month hiatus.
While Nunes is an aggressive striker, she is also smart and technical when she throws. She will have to be patient and wait for Rousey to overextend and become vulnerable so that she can counter with a combination.
So long as she keeps Rousey at bay with her boxing, Nunes should get her arm raised at the end of the fight for the fifth consecutive time.
How Ronda Rousey wins
If Rousey fights like Rousey, this shouldn't even be a question.
She is arguably in the best physical shape of her career coming into Friday's bout, but her fitness level isn't what people care about. It's her mindset.
After Holm knocked her out cold last November, Rousey went into a dark place and disappeared from the spotlight, trying to find herself once more. Now that she's back, she hasn't been open to the media or the public, so everything surrounding her is still a mystery.
If Rousey can go back to rushing her opponent, putting her against the cage against her will and engaging her in the clinch, then it will be a long night for Nunes. Rousey has the advantage on the ground, regardless of Nunes' background in jiu-jitsu and judo.
Standing up with Nunes would be a big mistake on Rousey's part because the champ can strike and land combinations in a way that's reminiscent of Holm. If Rousey wants that belt back, she has to have a game plan and not freelance like she has done in the past because her opponents were inferior.
The bantamweight division has evolved drastically in the past year since Rousey was last seen on a fight card. She can't underestimate Nunes for one second in the cage, or she'll lose for the second consecutive time.
Prediction
As great as it will be to see Rousey back in the Octagon, it's hard to say how well she'll do against a fighter with Nunes' finishing ability. If this fight took place a year-and-a-half ago, I'd lean toward Rousey. Who wouldn't?
Rousey decimated the bantamweight division the last few years but lost her throne in devastating fashion. Not being able to understand how she feels mentally because she shut down media exposure for this fight is a big factor in determining the outcome, and because of that, I'm going with the current champion, Nunes.
Nunes is a superior striker who is well-rounded enough to make Rousey uncomfortable in multiple styles of combat. This fight will not go the distance. I envision a nervous start for Rousey as she tries to weave her way through Nunes' reach. Rousey will eventually get caught by a combination that will make her think twice about shooting for a takedown or judo toss.
With Rousey now overthinking her next move, Nunes will be right at home, picking her shots against the former champion in the same way that Nunes dismantled Tate a few months ago.
Many pundits believe this fight won't go past the first or second round, but it will last into the third round and end with Nunes unleashing a barrage of punches to Rousey's face and body against the fence until the referee intervenes.
Prediction: Nunes wins by TKO in Round 3.
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