This one is for you, MMA hardcores.
In contrast to a few of its more ballyhooed recent efforts—UFC 189 and UFC 190, for example—Saturday night's UFC 191 isn't going to land anybody on Good Morning America. This will be a more intimate affair, featuring two small men fighting for an audience made up of the sport's most strident supporters.
Depending on how you look at it, you can call that glorious or you can call it the primary problem with Demetrious Johnson's near-three-year reign as flyweight champion. Johnson is great at fighting—maybe the pound-for-pound best in the world—but so far, much of MMA's fanbase has responded with a resounding yawn.
Challenger John Dodson has said he'll change all that. During the run-up to this fight—a rematch—he's promised he'll take the title from Johnson and put the 125-pound weight class on the map as destination viewing for everyone.
Is he up to either challenge? That's why they have the fights.
In this bitter war of words, the facts and fictions are flying around like mad. Luckily, Bleacher Report lead writers Chad Dundas (that's me) and Jonathan Snowden are here to sort out the difference.
Fact or Fiction: John Dodson Shocks Demetrious Johnson, Carries the Belt Back to Albuquerque.
Chad: Dodson is a 4-1 underdog, according to Odds Shark, but I say this is fact.
Firstly, for 10 minutes in their first meeting in January 2013, it looked like Dodson would stop Johnson’s title run before it really got started. He dropped the champ three times with heavy punches during the first two periods, only to have DJ rebound and steal the bout away in the championship rounds.
If not for that comeback, a few inadvertent fouls—low blow, illegal knee, possible eye poke—and Dodson’s own failing cardio, he might’ve got the job done the first time around. Now, with a couple years for the coaches at Jackson-Winkeljohn to fine-tune the ol' game plan, the rematch could be the charm for Dodson.
Secondly, Johnson has been talking big about wanting to surpass Anderson Silva’s record of 10 consecutive UFC title defenses, relayed by MMA Junkie. That’s usually the kind of thing people say before they mess up and lose one.
What say you, Jonathan?
Jonathan: The first time I saw John Dodson fight, I knew he was going to be something special. Sure, he was competing at a local show in Fairfax, Virginia. And, yes, it was true that no major fight promotion at the time promoted his ideal weight class.
Despite that, Dodson knew he was going to make it. He had the ego and cockiness that all the great fighters have—that you need to have in order to excel in the fight game.
I've had my eye on him ever since—and on Saturday night, it'll all pay off. Demetrious Johnson may be the most skilled fighter in the UFC. But Dodson? Dodson is magic. And that's a fact.
Chad: I’ve heard a lot of promos cut during my time covering combat sports, but I’m not sure I’ve ever heard anyone spit hot fire quite the way Dodson did when I talked to him about Johnson recently.
He issued the kind of threats of physical violence that had even me thinking, “dude, are you sure you want to say all this?”
This fight is a big, big deal for Dodson and everybody at Jackson-Wink. Meanwhile, Johnson insists it’s just another fight. Maybe there’s power in the champ’s nonchalance, but it’s hard not to side with Dodson’s enthusiasm.
Fact or Fiction: UFC 191 Sets an All-Time Low for Modern UFC PPV Numbers.
Snowden: Fact. Sadly.
While our colleague Jeremy Botter made a compelling case for ignoring the business side of the sport and simply enjoying some fights, what happens at the box office can have a profound effect on how the sport functions in the future. Demetrious Johnson, no matter how dominant he is in the cage, just can't seem to capture the attention of the UFC's rabid fanbase. Whether that's his fault or ours is a matter for debate—but it's certainly a topic worth discussing.
With Johnson at the helm, the 125-pound division has failed to make it out of the blocks to the point there have been whispers around UFC headquarters about simply shutting the flyweight class down and sending everybody in it back to the house. It wouldn't be unprecedented. When the lightweight class led by B.J. Penn failed to take flight, Zuffa got rid of it for a time. The same thing absolutely could happen with flyweights.
Johnson's box office failures matter—not just for him but everyone in the weight class.
Luckily for all the wee men who love fisticuffs, the UFC is in the midst of an unprecedented global expansion. They need fighters to round out shows and fill cards. That might be the division's saving grace. Johnson, arguably the least popular champion in UFC history, certainly won't be.
Chad: I’m going to say fiction, but only because of the near-historic low buyrates already posted by other Demetrious Johnson PPVs.
To date, the high watermark for Johnson on PPV was the 205,000 estimated units he moved for his UFC 178 bout with Chris Cariaso—with a little help on the card from a still-developing Conor McGregor and the well-publicized clash between Donald Cerrone and Eddie Alvarez. The low point was UFC 174, at which his bout with Ali Bagautinov garnered 115,000.
Smack in the middle was the 125,000 buys he moved for his most recent fight, against relative unknown Kyoji Horiguchi at UFC 186.
This rematch with Dodson won’t ascend beyond Cariaso levels, but it should be better than Bagautinov status. Call this one a straight Horiguchi—it’ll post slightly better than 125,000 buys.
Jonathan: It has to help Johnson that the UFC is riding a wave of success that makes it feel like 2010 all over again. I don't think Johnson is any more popular than he was at UFC 174, but the emergence of a new crop of fans, introduced to the sport through Ronda Rousey and McGregor, can't hurt the cause.
You'll notice, however, that Johnson is the first and only man to slow down the McGregor promotional machine. McGregor's entire career consists of box office win after box office win—except the time he was put on the same card as the flyweight champ and was unable to single-handedly escape Johnson's promotional black hole.
That doesn't bode well for this show's chances.
Fact or Fiction: The Andrei Arlovski Comeback Tour Keeps Rolling.
Chad: Fiction. Look, nobody outside of the Arlovski family was happier than me to see Big Andrei rebound from four straight losses between 2009 and 2011 to go 9-1-1 in his next 11 fights. That includes three straight wins inside the Octagon since returning to the UFC in 2014.
Unfortunately, I’m just not crazy about this matchup for him.
Frank Mir—having dusted his own four-fight losing streak with back-to-back wins already this year—is just too cagey and too good right now. If they scrap on the feet, I see a big left hand ending Arlovksi’s night the same way it did Todd Duffee's in July. If the fight goes to the ground, well, c’mon.
Arlovski’s resurgence is a great story, and I’d love to think of him as a guy knocking on the door of a title shot, but at the end of this night, that tale will be reduced to a flight of fancy.
Jonathan: The most dangerous kind of fiction—especially for me. As a gentleman of advancing age, I'm secretly thrilled to see these old dogs taking the fight to the UFC's crop of modern heavyweights. It makes me feel more potent by proxy. Spurious as that logic is, it's a good feeling.
Of course, the truth is a bit more grim. I'm not fully convinced either man is entirely "back." Instead, they've been the beneficiaries of kind matchmaking and opponents with single-digit fight IQs.
I can't erase images of the fear in Arlovski's eyes from a couple of years ago. That fear never truly goes away. At the same time, it's also hard to forget just how bad Mir was on what looked like the road to retirement. Both men are mere mirages, shadows of greatness that once was.
Since I'm not a full-on believer in either man winning, I'll focus instead on who's more likely to lose. Arlovski's questionable chin and propensity to be hit right on the button are a bad combination. He might win the fight with his superior technical standup. But he more likely gets rocked and finished on the ground, bringing one fairy tale to an end while giving another one last chapter in which to write a happy ending.
Chad: Well, now I’m bummed. Both Arlovski and Mir are likable former champions—yes, even Mir—and after reading that soul-searching screed, I don’t really want to see anything terrible happen to either of them.
I agree with you, though. This feels like a fight in which something bad is going to happen to somebody.
And that somebody, as much as I detest saying it, is probably going to be Arlovski.
All buyrate information courtesy of Dave Meltzer's estimates (h/t MMA Payout). Thanks, Dave!
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