Phil Mackenzie gives you the three things you need to know about Pawel Pawlak vs Sheldon Westcott, while searching for positive things to say about one of the most unlikely main card fights in recent memory
This April 11, 2015 Pawel Pawlak and Sheldon Westcott have an unpredictable and probably violent throwdown at the Venue Kraków Arena in City Kraków, Poland.
The Matchup
Welterweight Pawel Pawlak versus Sheldon Westcott
The Odds
Pawel Pawlak +174
Sheldon Westcott -180
3 Things You Need to Know
Pawel Pawlak is either a decent, raw prospect or a straight-up can crusher
Regional-level MMA can be deceiving. Pawel Pawlak did what a good prospect should do on the Polish scene in smashing an admittedly minimal level of competition with strikes and subs. Unfortunately, these are also results which can be achieved by someone who doesn't have the necessary level of athleticism to compete in the UFC- it's possible to get relatively far with aggression and a few semi-decent tools.
So what tools does Pawlak bring to the table? He's got a jab, and the left hook which bought him his only real success against Peter Sobotta, but a tendency to pot-shot with both. From the bottom, he's able to stay out of trouble against mid-level competition, and pick up submissions against lower level fighters. From top he passes quickly, is a good submission threat, and has nasty ground and pound, including some notably vicious elbows. His main problem is that he has appeared absolutely devoid of understanding of how to close the distance if his opponent doesn't do it for him, and Sobotta carved him up from the outside with kicks, and double legged him with impunity when Pawlak got desperate and charged in. How much of this can be improved on, how much of it was octagon jitters, and whether it's a more long-term problem are some of the key questions for his MMA career moving forward.
Given what we've seen, Sheldon Westcott is the safer pick
Westcott is the more physically imposing fighter. He starts off every fight pretty much the same way, by bulling the opponent to the ground and looking to pass and submit, and he's been able to do it to a slightly better level of competition than Pawlak, who's feasted on some extremely green opponents. On the feet Westcott's approach is even more predicated around athleticism and aggression than it is in the grappling phase, but he's a powerful hitter, and packs a stern straight left from southpaw.
Extreme weight cuts are rarely the best fix for cardio issues
Westcott did well against Elias Theodorou for a couple of minutes before visibly beginning to fade. Bear in mind, I didn't write "a couple of rounds", I wrote "minutes." Theodorou puts a draining pace on his opponents, but that is regional heavyweight levels of gas tank.
Westcott is now cutting to welterweight, where he'll be enormous. I can't help but be reminded of another TUF alum, Mike King. He came down from 185, stepping in against Cathal Pendred as a titanic welterweight. He battered the Irishman and came close to stopping him multiple times, but when the second started he was as defenceless as a newborn Carwin, unable to withstand Pendred's legendarily effective fight-ending offense.
Prediction
Unless Pawlak has made really substantial improvements, this fight likely starts with Westcott beating him up. Whether he can withstand it and how long Westcott can keep going are what the fight hinges on from there, and I don't generally like picking the Boxcar Homer method, so Sheldon Westcott by submission, round 1.
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