On July 9 at UFC 200, Brock Lesnar is back. You might have heard about it. It’s kind of a big deal—even if a lot of us still have no idea how to process this surprise return.
When Lesnar abandoned his short and wild mixed martial arts career at the end of 2011, most figured they’d seen the last of the former UFC champ. Now 38 years old, and almost five years removed from the Octagon, it seems he couldn’t stay away from the sweet sounds of Bruce Buffer’s voice.
Whatever you think of his decision to come back, it must be said that the UFC didn’t offer him a layup in his return bout. Instead, it gave him the king of the walk-off knockout, Mark Hunt.
Can Lesnar succeed after so much time away? Joining me to discuss the likely outcomes is a man who knows a little something about both of Lesnar's professional pursuits, Bleacher Report Combat Sports Senior Writer Jonathan Snowden.
Mike Chiappetta: The last time Lesnar fought in the cage, I was driving my wife to the hospital to give birth to my daughter, who is now old enough to prepare for fall enrollment into kindergarten. That’s a long time. This is a sport that is not usually forgiving to long layoffs. The game moves too fast and passes you by.
Lesnar may have been secretly training for the last few months in preparation for this opportunity, but Hunt has been training and competing the whole time. Sure, his record since Lesnar’s departure (5-3, 1 no-contest) won’t blow you away, but all of his wins were by knockout, and his losses were to the current champion (Stipe Miocic) and to the Nos. 1 (Fabricio Werdum) and 4 (Junior Dos Santos) contenders.
If you’re looking for a positive sign for the former NCAA champion Lesnar, I guess it would be the fact that Miocic was able to take Hunt down six times when they fought.
But how positive can it be? Lesnar never found any level of comfort as a striker, and he’s got to wade through Hunt’s inhuman power to get inside with the takedown, and I don’t think that will go well. Do you, Jonathan?
Jonathan Snowden: Luckily, Lesnar has been active in some ways—not just sitting on his couch dreaming about the glory days. He even fought in a cage last year against the legendary Undertaker. But Taker, once the WWE's most feared striker, is no Hunt.
Even on his best day, Hunt is the kind of fighter who would have challenged Lesnar. His strengths are in areas where Lesnar is weak, which is typically a recipe for disaster.
At one point in his career, a bull rush and takedown were the template to take Hunt out of his comfort zone. Today's Hunt sits and waits for someone to try something that foolish, employing hard counterpunches designed to make even the bravest man think twice about coming anywhere near him.
Lesnar's game was built around just that kind of reckless entry—a hope, a prayer and preternatural speed being his only defense.
Against Hunt, that's not going to cut it.
That's not to say Lesnar can't win. As memory of his dominance fades, I've seen many discount Lesnar's fighting career. But I was there. At the top of his game, Brock was a heavyweight who moved like a middleweight, an enormous, angry and athletic man who wasn't afraid to mix it up.
Lesnar is a real fighter, and this is a real fight—not a sideshow exhibition.
Mike: I think those of us who watched him in person, in his prime can’t forget those things you point out, which is what makes his comeback compelling.
There aren’t many sports where a 38-year-old who is five years removed from active competition would be seen as any kind of threat. But heavyweight MMA? That’s a different beast. For reference, 32-year-old Junior Dos Santos is the youngest fighter in the UFC’s Top 10.
Lesnar is undoubtedly a great athlete, but as you point out, he was a little too dependent on those gifts.
And as you also mentioned, Hunt has evolved his game to emphasize his strengths. One of his most effective punches is an uppercut to a level-changing opponent. I can’t stop imagining a charging Lesnar eating one or two of those without scrapping the idea in favor of plan B.
But for Lesnar, what exactly is plan B? He may be able to get inside and clinch with Hunt, but that’s no picnic, either. Hunt loves to dirty box, and his short reach generates tremendous power in short distances.
Lesnar may have to tire him out against the cage and hope his fatigue makes him more prone to takedowns. That is a real possibility, but he’s going to have to take his lumps to reach that point.
To circle back to the original question—"Can he succeed in the UFC in this day and age?"—the answer is not a simple yes or no. In the right matches, he can win a fight or two, but long-term, it’s unlikely.
The division hasn’t turned over, but the book on Lesnar is out there, and it’s been studied. Unless he shows some drastic changes—unlikely at 38 and for a part-time fighter—his ceiling has probably already been reached. What do you think, Jonathan?
Jonathan: I don't think Lesnar is the kind of man who ponders a plan B. That would indicate he considered failure a possibility.
I'm not even sure Lesnar truly believes he's ever been beaten by another man in the Octagon. Against Frank Mir, he made a rookie mistake. Against Cain Velasquez and Alistair Overeem, his own body failed him.
That's how we find ourselves here in the first place. Had Lesnar felt another man was his better, he might have been content in WWE, content leaving his athletic career in the past.
But he doesn't believe it. And, perhaps, he's right. After all, his weren't failures of game-planning or technique. No one figured him out. Instead, a tiny hole in his intestines ruined one of the most promising careers in combat sports history.
Can he return despite 40 looming, despite years of inactivity? Lesnar has never been a particularly difficult book to read. But knowing what he's going to do and stopping him from doing it are dramatically different things.
Will his simple, smashmouth plan be enough in the modern, ever-changing UFC? I can't say I honestly know. I don't think anyone can. And that's the secret of sports as entertainment—and it's why we'll watch.
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