After two years and one lawsuit, Quinton Jackson finally makes his return to the Octagon against Fabio Maldonado at UFC 186 on Saturday.
It was uncertain Jackson vs. Maldonado was going to happen on this card. On April 7, Rampage's former employer, Bellator MMA, which filed a lawsuit against him claiming he only completed three fights on a six-fight contract, was granted an injunction that forced UFC to take him off the card, per MMA Fighting's Ariel Helwani:
On April 21, four days before the event, UFC announced (via Nancy Gay of UFC.com) that a New Jersey judge reversed the injunction that will allow Jackson to compete at UFC 186. The report also notes it will be a catchweight bout at 215 pounds instead of a traditional light heavyweight fight (205 pounds).
This is a huge moment for the 36-year-old Jackson, who did not leave UFC in 2013 on a high note. He lost three consecutive fights against Jon Jones, Ryan Bader and Glover Teixeira in his final fight before moving to Bellator. He also missed weight for his bout against Bader at UFC 144.
One of those defeats can't be held against Jackson because it came against Jon Jones, who has yet to be legitimately beaten. (Jones' only career defeat was the result of a disqualification due to illegal elbow strikes against Matt Hamill.)
Following his loss against Teixeira in January 2013, Jackson said during the UFC on Fox post-fight telecast (via Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie) that he wasn't sure of his ability against elite competition:
I don’t know if I can compete with the top people in the world (anymore). This is my first time losing three in a row. I’m not going to give up though. It’s not my last MMA fight. I might try some boxing. But no, I still want to fight; it’s still in my heart. I’ve just got a lot of reevaluating to do.
Jackson did have a successful run with Bellator, going 3-0 with wins over Joey Beltran, Christian M'Pumbu and Muhammed Lawal. Two of those wins came by knockout, which is a positive sign since he hadn't won a UFC fight by stoppage since December 2008 against Wanderlei Silva.
Maldonado is the perfect opponent for Jackson on his comeback tour. He's an aging fighter at 35 years old who had his own three-fight losing streak with UFC in 2011-12 and has a pedestrian 5-4 mark with mixed martial arts' top organization.
That's not to say Maldonado is out of his element against Jackson. Quite the opposite, actually. Elias Cepeda of Fox Sports came up with a logical scenario for Maldonado to win this fight:
Jackson could very well use his good wrestling to put Maldonado on his back, but he'll have to have the endurance to do it over and over again, or keep him there. Maldonado is resilient and superbly conditioned -- despite his appearance -- and Jackson will have to show him stuff that he hasn't shown many in years in order to be able to finish him.
That's not a glowing review of how Maldonado can win, but it does paint a reasonable picture for the veteran fighter. Given some of the issues Jackson has had with his weight, going back to the Bader fight, and the fact that this bout won't be fought at 205 pounds could cause Rampage to look softer than he normally would.
It's such a difficult fight to predict with any certainty because so much of it depends on which Jackson will show up. If he's interested and wants to prove a point in his return to UFC, there's no reason he shouldn't win.
Maldonado's UFC wins aren't an impressive collection. No one gets hyped seeing Hans Stringer or James McSweeney or Gian Villante on a fight card.
Ryan Frederick of Wrestling Observer also noted that Maldonado's boxing style is what Jackson likes and makes a nice contrast to the wrestlers like Jones, Bader and Teixeira that he was taking on before leaving:
He gets a match-up he should enjoy in fighting Fabio Maldonado, who is a boxer who likes to stand and exchange punches. Maldonado tires easily, but he is willing to take a beating in order to dish one out. Jackson likes to stand and trade and entertain the fans, so he has a perfect match-up for him. If both are at the top of their game, this could be an entertaining slugfest of a bout.
Assuming all things are equal, Jackson should win. Even at this stage of his career, the former UFC light heavyweight champion has the power and wrestling ability to get by a mid-level fighter. This is Jackson's last chance to prove himself and make significant money in UFC.
Sometimes the threat of becoming irrelevant can provide the kind of motivation a fighter like Jackson needs. UFC has put him in a prime spot to succeed, giving him the co-main event slot on the card, so it's on him to make the most of it.
Jackson will take his moment in the spotlight, though it's going to come from the judges in a tense three-round affair.
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