UFC 186 isn't the most star-studded card of the year, but that doesn't mean you can't win some DraftKings money picking winners. The main event features UFC flyweight champion Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson defending his title against Kyoji Horiguchi.
To put it plain: Take the champion. Don't be scared off by his healthy DK salary of $11,400. In MMA contests, you can't afford not to have fighters in your lineup who are capable of spectacular finishes. Johnson's lightning-quick hands make him a strong candidate to put an opponent's lights out in an instant.
Johnson scored a knockout win in this fashion in Dec. 2013 when he stopped perennial contender Joseph Benavidez. Since then, he has dominated Ali Bagautinov and Chris Cariaso. With stoppage wins in three of his last four fights and seven straight victories in all, Johnson is clearly one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.
Horiguchi does present some different challenges because he's a smooth, quick and slightly unorthodox striker. While the challenger is fast, he's not quite as quick as the champion. In the end, that's going to be the difference and should lead to anther stoppage win for Mighty Mouse.
Even if Horiguchi goes the distance, Johnson has averaged 3.54 significant strikes per match, per FightMetric.com. That pace should provide DK owners a solid point total for a decision victory.
Here's my optimum DK lineup for the event. Just below the table is a look at another virtual lock, a sleeper pick that could be the difference between winning and losing your contest and a high-value loser.
Sarah Kaufman ($10,400) vs. Alexis Davis
The old adage says that it's hard to beat an opponent three times in a row. I usually agree with that concept in football but not so much in MMA. Sarah Kaufman has faced and defeated Alexis Davis in 2007 and 2012 before the two women joined the UFC.
The first win came by KO, and the most recent came via majority decision.
Davis is an improved fighter despite coming off an embarrassing 16-second loss at the hands of UFC women's bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey back in July 2014 at UFC 175. However, the long layoff and Kaufman's mental edge over her should still be too much for the 30-year-old Davis to overcome.
The 29-year-old Kaufman's only losses have come to Rousey in 2012 and another women's MMA legend, Marloes Coenen, in 2010. Considering her impressive track record, Kaufman may very well be the second-best fighter female fighter in the world. Davis will need to take Kaufman down, but that's easier said than done.
In her career, Kaufman's takedown defense percentage is 85 percent. Kaufman also racks up 7.1 significant strikes per minute. Against a slow-of-foot opponent like Davis, this should be a recipe for a healthy chunk of fantasy points for Kaufman.
CB Dollaway ($9,200) vs. Michael Bisping
This pick has as much to do with Michael Bisping's inconsistency and age as it does CB Dollaway's skill. Bisping has alternated wins and losses for his last seven fights. Since he was submitted by Luke Rockhold in his last fight, the trend says Bisping should beat Dollaway.
I'm going against the grain a bit here simply because it's difficult to trust Bisping in any scenario. That's especially the case when he's facing a younger fighter like Dollaway, who is also hungry to ascend up the middleweight ranks.
Dollaway isn't exactly a fresh face. He's been in the UFC since 2008, and he's 31 years old. That said, Bisping is 36, and he's been with the promotion since 2007. He's been on the cusp of a title shot numerous times, but he's always come up short.
Bisping has above-average boxing, and he'll likely have faster hands than Dollaway. However, Dollaway is the better wrestler, and he shouldn't have a great deal of problems taking Bisping down. Tim Kennedy, who is less accomplished as a wrestler, scored five of 11 takedown attempts against Bisping in their April 2014 bout, per FightMetric.com.
As a former All-American in wrestling from Arizona State University, there's no question what game plan Dollaway will look to employ. Fox Sports' Elias Cepeda captures this confident quote from Dollaway about the upcoming matchup:
His weakest point (wrestling) is my strongest point. And I've improved so much on what used to be a weak point for me -- stand-up striking. I've had immense improvement there. I feel I can stand with him, and I feel I can still knock him out. I don't think he has that option. If things go bad for him on the feet, it is not like he's going to bust out takedowns.
Look for Dollaway to grind out an unanimous decision based on top control and ground-and-pound strikes.
David Michaud ($8,400) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier
UFC 186 is one of those cards where its difficult to pick five winners and stay under the salary cap. Thus we need to find a predicted loser who has a chance to still score a bit before going down in defeat.
The battle between Olivier Aubin-Mercier and David Michaud is one that features two up-and-coming lightweights looking to take the next step in their careers. Taking Aubin-Mercier would cost you $11,000 in DK salary. Michaud can be had for just $8,400. I think this fight is a little closer than the salary disparity would suggest.
Both fighters lost their UFC professional debuts and rebounded with wins in their second attempt. While Aubin-Mercier appears to be a slightly better grappler and submissions artist, Michaud is a powerfully built 155-pounder and has a more diverse set of skills. He has three wins by KO and submission. Aubin-Mercier has won all five of his professional fights by submission.
Michaud packs more of a wallop in stand-up, and that is where he'd be advised to keep the fight. Even if he loses, his striking could make him one of the more productive losers on the night. If he can stop Aubin-Mercier's attempts to take him down, he could find a home for one of his hard right-hand counters and score even bigger than expected.
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